Cittadella 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cittadella host Venezia at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cittadella — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Cittadella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cittadella's home record at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Venezia have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cittadella at 1.10 PPG versus Venezia's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Cittadella trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
Venezia trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 45% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 35% | Venezia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.76 xG and Venezia 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 1.187 / defence 1.176 | Venezia attack 0.973 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.085. Data: 40 Cittadella games / 2 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cittadella 49% | Draw 24% | Venezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.04 | Draw 4.17 | Venezia 3.70. Cittadella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cittadella are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 49% | Draw 24% | Venezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 59% | xG Cittadella 1.76 / Venezia 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 1.187 / def 1.176 | Venezia attack 0.973 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Venezia xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Venezia kick off?
Cittadella vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Venezia?
Cittadella 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Cittadella vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Venezia part of?
Cittadella vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 49% chance of winning, Venezia a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Cittadella and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Venezia in?
Cittadella (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 1.19x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
49%
2.03
24%
4.12
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Cittadella xG
Total xG
3.00
1.24
Venezia xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.46
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
5%
21.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.2 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 10.9 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.24 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cittadella come into this having played 40 games, going 14W 13D 13L for 1.38 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for Cittadella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 0.75 PPG from 40 outings (7W 9D 24L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cittadella carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cittadella's home form reads 8W 5D 7L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (4W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cittadella come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cittadella are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 0.92 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 14W 13D 13L in their last 40 games (1.38 PPG), while Venezia have gone 7W 9D 24L in their last 40 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Venezia away?
Cittadella's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.45 PPG; Venezia away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Venezia in 10%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cittadella's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cittadella
3
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Venezia have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when Venezia 2-0 Cittadella.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 45%, Venezia 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cittadella) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Venezia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Cittadella's recent matches and 55% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cittadella's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Venezia tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Venezia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cittadella and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 3, as Cittadella and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.76 xG and Venezia 1.24 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 1.19 / defence 1.18 against Venezia attack 0.97 / defence 1.11, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 49% | Draw 24% | Venezia 27%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 35%, Venezia 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Venezia's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cittadella arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.75. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.