Cittadella 0-2 Ternana – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cittadella at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Ternana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis

Ternana make the trip to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to face Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.

Form

Cittadella (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cittadella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.

Ternana have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ternana have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Ternana away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ternana are 0.50 PPG clear of Cittadella in recent Serie B fixtures (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cittadella lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Ternana winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading

Cittadella half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Ternana half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 96% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 43% versus Ternana 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 34% | Ternana 52%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.91 xG and Ternana 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 1.072 / defence 1.049 | Ternana attack 1.173 / defence 1.400. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.055. Ternana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.400 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Cittadella games / 44 Ternana games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Cittadella 52% | Draw 22% | Ternana 26%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | Ternana 3.85. Cittadella hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Cittadella as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ternana (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cittadella if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 50% | Ternana 100% BTTS from recent games.

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