Cittadella 0-2 Sudtirol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cittadella take on Sudtirol.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sudtirol make the trip to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato to face Cittadella in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 December 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cittadella's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cittadella have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Sudtirol have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 3L across 8 road games this term (1.38 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Cittadella — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 47% of games.
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 35% versus Sudtirol 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cittadella 29% | Sudtirol 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.06 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 0.733 / defence 1.127 | Sudtirol attack 0.881 / defence 1.247. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.058. Cittadella's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Sudtirol bring a strong defensive rating of 1.247 — this is suppressing Cittadella's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 Cittadella games / 17 Sudtirol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 33% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 32%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 3.03 | Draw 2.86 | Sudtirol 3.12. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 40% | Sudtirol 38% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Sudtirol | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Dec 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 33% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Cittadella 1.06 / Sudtirol 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 0.733 / def 1.127 | Sudtirol attack 0.881 / def 1.247 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Sudtirol xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Sudtirol kick off?
Cittadella vs Sudtirol kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 18 December 2022 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Sudtirol?
Cittadella 0 - 2 Sudtirol.
Where is Cittadella vs Sudtirol being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Sudtirol part of?
Cittadella vs Sudtirol is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Sudtirol?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 33% chance of winning, Sudtirol a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Sudtirol?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cittadella and Sudtirol will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Sudtirol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Sudtirol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cittadella and Sudtirol in?
Cittadella (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cittadella's attack at 0.73x the league average against Sudtirol's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sudtirol's attack (0.88x) against Cittadella's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 55/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.06
35%
2.86
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.11
1.05
Sudtirol xG
3.06
33%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
11%
8.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.8 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Sudtirol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Sudtirol expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.05 for Sudtirol, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Sudtirol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cittadella come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 7D 6L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sudtirol sit at 1.35 PPG from 17 outings (5W 8D 4L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Cittadella against 1.35 for Sudtirol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cittadella's home form reads 2W 4D 2L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Sudtirol have taken 1.38 points per game from 8 outings (3W 2D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Cittadella are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Sudtirol are on 1.12 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Sudtirol
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Sudtirol in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Sudtirol have gone 5W 8D 4L in their last 17 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Sudtirol away?
Sudtirol's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.25 PPG; Sudtirol away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Sudtirol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Sudtirol in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won 1-5 on 9 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cittadella have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sudtirol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cittadella
2
Draws
2
Sudtirol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Sudtirol?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 2, Sudtirol have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Sudtirol last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Cittadella 1-5 Sudtirol.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cittadella see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 38%, Sudtirol 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Cittadella and 38% for Sudtirol.
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cittadella have failed to score in 50% of games; Sudtirol in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Sudtirol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Sudtirol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Cittadella's recent matches and 38% of Sudtirol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Sudtirol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Cittadella's recent games and 38% of Sudtirol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Sudtirol tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sudtirol in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cittadella.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol beat Cittadella 0-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.06 xG and Sudtirol 1.05 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cittadella fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Sudtirol outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 0.73 / defence 1.13 against Sudtirol attack 0.88 / defence 1.25, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 33% | Draw 35% | Sudtirol 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Sudtirol win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 29%, Sudtirol 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sudtirol's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cittadella 1.12 PPG, Sudtirol 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sudtirol win broke the near-deadlock. Cittadella (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Sudtirol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.