Cittadella 1-2 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cittadella at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cittadella vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 24 as Cittadella welcome Parma to Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cittadella stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cittadella, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Cittadella have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Parma — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Parma's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cittadella 1.70 PPG, Parma 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Parma have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Cittadella.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Parma winning.
It is worth noting that Parma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Cittadella in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Parma in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cittadella 48% versus Parma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cittadella 39% | Parma 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cittadella 1.41 xG and Parma 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cittadella attack 1.148 / defence 0.981 | Parma attack 1.183 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.192. Data: 61 Cittadella games / 61 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cittadella 37% | Draw 26% | Parma 36%. Fair-value odds: Cittadella 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Parma 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cittadella at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cittadella offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cittadella 70% | Parma 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cittadella vs Parma | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cittadella 37% | Draw 26% | Parma 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Cittadella 1.41 / Parma 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Cittadella attack 1.148 / def 0.981 | Parma attack 1.183 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Cittadella (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Cittadella xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Parma xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cittadella vs Parma kick off?
Cittadella vs Parma kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 10 February 2024 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What was the final score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Cittadella 1 - 2 Parma.
Where is Cittadella vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato.
What competition is Cittadella vs Parma part of?
Cittadella vs Parma is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cittadella vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cittadella a 37% chance of winning, Parma a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cittadella the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cittadella vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cittadella and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cittadella vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Parma?
Record (5 meetings): Cittadella 0W | Draws 1 | Parma 4W.
What form are Cittadella and Parma in?
Cittadella (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Parma (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cittadella's attack rating (1.15) and Parma's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cittadella's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cittadella Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.81
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Cittadella xG
Total xG
2.79
1.38
Parma xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
24%
4.08
Win to Nil
9%
10.66
9%
11.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cittadella vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Cittadella and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Cittadella and 1.38 for Parma, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Cittadella vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cittadella's recent record stands at 19W 22D 20L from 61 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cittadella is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 31W 15D 15L across 61 games — 1.77 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cittadella heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cittadella have managed 11W 10D 9L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cittadella are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.49 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Parma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cittadella
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cittadella and Parma in coming into this match?
Cittadella have gone 19W 22D 20L in their last 61 games (1.30 PPG), while Parma have gone 31W 15D 15L in their last 61 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cittadella at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cittadella at home: 1.43 PPG; Parma away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cittadella or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cittadella have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Parma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cittadella and Parma runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Parma have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Cittadella's record when hosting Parma specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cittadella
1
Draws
5
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cittadella and Parma?
From 6 meetings on record, Cittadella have won 0, Parma have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cittadella and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2024, when Cittadella 1-2 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Cittadella and Parma?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cittadella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cittadella 40%, Parma 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cittadella) and 50% (Parma).
On the defensive side: Cittadella keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Parma in 33%; Cittadella have failed to score in 43% of games; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cittadella home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cittadella play Parma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cittadella's recent matches and 47% of Parma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cittadella vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cittadella's recent games and 50% of Parma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cittadella and Parma tend to score early?
Cittadella have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Parma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Parma defy the odds to beat Cittadella 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Parma beat Cittadella 1-2 at Stadio Pier Cesare Tombolato, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cittadella 1.41 xG and Parma 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cittadella attack 1.15 / defence 0.98 against Parma attack 1.18 / defence 0.92, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cittadella 37% | Draw 26% | Parma 36%, with Cittadella to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Parma win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cittadella 39%, Parma 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cittadella's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cittadella (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.