Cesena 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cesena at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cesena vs Juve Stabia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cesena and Juve Stabia meet at Stadio Dino Manuzzi in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 20 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cesena (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cesena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Cesena have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Cesena's 1.90 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Juve Stabia's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cesena, 2 for Juve Stabia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Mar 2025, ended 1–2 with Juve Stabia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cesena — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Juve Stabia — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cesena 58% versus Juve Stabia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cesena 44% | Juve Stabia 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 2.00 xG and Juve Stabia 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 1.159 / defence 0.992 | Juve Stabia attack 0.847 / defence 1.292. League average goals — home 1.333 / away 1.063. Juve Stabia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.292 — this is suppressing Cesena's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 54 Cesena games / 54 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 62% | Draw 23% | Juve Stabia 15%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Juve Stabia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Cesena (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.89 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Cesena 70% | Juve Stabia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 62% | Draw 23% | Juve Stabia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 52% | xG Cesena 2.00 / Juve Stabia 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 1.159 / def 0.992 | Juve Stabia attack 0.847 / def 1.292 | league avg home 1.333 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Cesena (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Juve Stabia xG
52%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Cesena vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 December 2025 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What was the final score in Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Cesena 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Cesena vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Juve Stabia part of?
Cesena vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 62% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cesena and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Juve Stabia?
Record (2 meetings): Cesena 0W | Draws 0 | Juve Stabia 2W.
What form are Cesena and Juve Stabia in?
Cesena (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cesena's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Juve Stabia's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.00. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.85x) against Cesena's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
62%
1.61
23%
4.39
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.89
0.89
Juve Stabia xG
1.61
62%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
25%
3.94
2%
48.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Cesena and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for Cesena and 0.89 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Juve Stabia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Cesena have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 23W 14D 18L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cesena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia's form line: 20W 19D 16L from 55 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Cesena against 1.44 for Juve Stabia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cesena have posted 1.73 PPG from 26 outings (12W 9D 5L).
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 4W 11D 11L from 26 away games — 0.88 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Juve Stabia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cesena come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cesena are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.07 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 23W 14D 18L in their last 55 games (1.51 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 20W 19D 16L in their last 55 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cesena at home or Juve Stabia away?
Cesena's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cesena at home: 1.73 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Cesena or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cesena have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cesena have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Cesena
1
Draws
3
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Juve Stabia?
From 4 meetings on record, Cesena have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cesena and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Juve Stabia 2-0 Cesena.
Who has won more matches between Cesena and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cesena 62%, Juve Stabia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cesena) and 54% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Cesena keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Juve Stabia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Cesena's games and 54% of Juve Stabia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cesena's recent games and 54% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cesena and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cesena and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cesena 2.00 xG and Juve Stabia 0.89 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Cesena fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cesena attack 1.16 / defence 0.99 against Juve Stabia attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cesena 62% | Draw 23% | Juve Stabia 15%, with Cesena to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cesena 44%, Juve Stabia 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cesena's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cesena 1.51 PPG, Juve Stabia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.