Carrarese 2-1 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Carrarese and Modena meet at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Carrarese's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carrarese have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio dei Marmi — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Modena have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Modena away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Carrarese against 1.40 for Modena. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Carrarese lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Carrarese half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (35 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 43% versus Modena 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 43% | Modena 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.19 xG and Modena 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 0.944 / defence 1.113 | Modena attack 1.033 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.156. Data: 35 Carrarese games / 73 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 32% | Draw 29% | Modena 39%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Modena 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Carrarese 50% | Modena 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 32% | Draw 29% | Modena 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Carrarese 1.19 / Modena 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 0.944 / def 1.113 | Modena attack 1.033 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Modena (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Modena xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Modena kick off?
Carrarese vs Modena kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Modena?
Carrarese 2 - 1 Modena.
Where is Carrarese vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Modena part of?
Carrarese vs Modena is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 32% chance of winning, Modena a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Carrarese and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Modena in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Modena (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (0.94) and Modena's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Modena's attack (1.03x) against Carrarese's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
32%
3.11
29%
3.42
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.52
1.33
Modena xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.75
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 10.7 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.33 for Modena, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Carrarese's recent record stands at 10W 11D 14L from 35 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 11L across 35 games — 1.26 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Carrarese against 1.26 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Carrarese have managed 9W 5D 4L from 18 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Modena's away record stands at 4W 7D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Carrarese are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.29 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 63%.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Modena in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 10W 11D 14L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while Modena have gone 10W 14D 11L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Modena away?
Carrarese's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.78 PPG; Modena away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Modena in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Carrarese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
1
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Modena?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Modena 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 33%, Modena 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Carrarese) and 44% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 28% of games; Modena in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Modena?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Carrarese's recent matches and 56% of Modena's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Carrarese's recent games and 44% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Modena tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Modena in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Carrarese defy the odds to beat Modena 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carrarese beat Modena 2-1 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.19 xG and Modena 1.33 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Carrarese beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Modena attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 32% | Draw 29% | Modena 39%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Carrarese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 43%, Modena 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.17 PPG, Modena 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Carrarese win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.