Carrarese 0-2 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carrarese host Frosinone at Stadio dei Marmi in Serie B, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese at Stadio dei Marmi this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Frosinone stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Frosinone have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 1.40 PPG, Frosinone 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Carrarese have won 1, Frosinone 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Frosinone winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Frosinone in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Frosinone 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 48% | Frosinone 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.45 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.193 / defence 1.064 | Frosinone attack 1.040 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.143. Data: 48 Carrarese games / 48 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 38% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 29%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data: Carrarese 50% | Frosinone 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 38% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 59% | xG Carrarese 1.45 / Frosinone 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.193 / def 1.064 | Frosinone attack 1.040 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Frosinone xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Frosinone kick off?
Carrarese vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Carrarese 0 - 2 Frosinone.
Where is Carrarese vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Frosinone part of?
Carrarese vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 38% chance of winning, Frosinone a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Carrarese and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 1W | Draws 0 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Carrarese and Frosinone in?
Carrarese (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (1.19) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
38%
2.65
33%
3.04
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Carrarese xG
Total xG
2.71
1.26
Frosinone xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
28%
3.54
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
11%
9.36
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.26 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carrarese come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 17D 17L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 1.27 PPG from 48 outings (14W 19D 15L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.23 PPG, Frosinone on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Carrarese's home form reads 12W 7D 5L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.21 points per game from 24 outings (7W 8D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.15 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 14W 17D 17L in their last 48 games (1.23 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 14W 19D 15L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Frosinone away?
Carrarese's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.79 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Frosinone in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Frosinone go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Apr 2026, when Frosinone won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carrarese's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Carrarese
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Frosinone 3-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 38%, Frosinone 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Carrarese) and 33% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 29% of games; Frosinone in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Carrarese's recent matches and 46% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Carrarese's recent games and 33% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Frosinone tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Carrarese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Frosinone beat Carrarese 0-2 at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.45 xG and Frosinone 1.26 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Carrarese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against Frosinone attack 1.04 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 38% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 29%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Frosinone win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 48%, Frosinone 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.23 PPG, Frosinone 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Frosinone win broke the near-deadlock. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Frosinone (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.