Cagliari 3-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Cagliari take on Perugia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Perugia make the trip to Unipol Domus to face Cagliari in Serie B, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 December 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 3W 3D 4L at Unipol Domus — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Perugia have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Perugia have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Cagliari against 0.90 for Perugia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Perugia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 61% versus Perugia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cagliari 48% | Perugia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.96 xG and Perugia 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.899 / defence 1.152 | Perugia attack 0.788 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.109. Data: 16 Cagliari games / 54 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 35% | Perugia 34%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Perugia 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.97 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. This conflicts with form data: Cagliari 80% | Perugia 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Dec 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 35% | Perugia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 41% | xG Cagliari 0.96 / Perugia 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.899 / def 1.152 | Perugia attack 0.788 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Perugia xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Perugia kick off?
Cagliari vs Perugia kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 December 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Perugia?
Cagliari 3 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Cagliari vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Perugia part of?
Cagliari vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Perugia a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cagliari and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Perugia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Perugia in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-D-D-L. Perugia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.90) and Perugia's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.79x) against Cagliari's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 16/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.19
35%
2.86
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Cagliari xG
Total xG
1.97
1.01
Perugia xG
3.19
31%
Home win
2.86
35%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
13%
7.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 14.1 | 7.1 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.01 for Perugia, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.91 PPG on a 10W 19D 25L record — D-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 16W 20D 18L from 54 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Cagliari against 1.26 for Perugia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 8W 10D 9L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 0.94 scored and 1.02 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Perugia in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 10W 19D 25L in their last 54 games (0.91 PPG), while Perugia have gone 16W 20D 18L in their last 54 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.00 PPG; Perugia away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 11% of their recent games, Perugia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Cagliari
0
Draws
0
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Perugia have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2023, when Perugia 0-5 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Perugia?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 74%, Perugia 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cagliari) and 41% (Perugia).
On the defensive side: Perugia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Perugia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Cagliari's games and 52% of Perugia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cagliari's recent games and 41% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Perugia tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Perugia in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Perugia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Perugia 3-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.96 xG and Perugia 1.01 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Perugia outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.90 / defence 1.15 against Perugia attack 0.79 / defence 0.91, drawn from 16/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 35% | Perugia 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 48%, Perugia 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.91 PPG, Perugia 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.