Cagliari 0-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Frosinone at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Frosinone meet at Unipol Domus in Serie B, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 April 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 6W 4D 0L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Frosinone away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Cagliari against 1.80 for Frosinone. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cagliari, 0 for Frosinone and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Nov 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 57% versus Frosinone 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 44% | Frosinone 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.97 xG and Frosinone 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.131 / defence 0.994 | Frosinone attack 1.142 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 0.979. Frosinone's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 Cagliari games / 70 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 38%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.23 | Draw 3.23 | Frosinone 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.08 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 60% | Frosinone 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Apr 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 31% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Cagliari 0.97 / Frosinone 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.131 / def 0.994 | Frosinone attack 1.142 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.147 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.97
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Frosinone xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Frosinone kick off?
Cagliari vs Frosinone kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 15 April 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Cagliari 0 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Cagliari vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Frosinone part of?
Cagliari vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 31% chance of winning, Frosinone a 38% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Cagliari and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Frosinone?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 0W.
What form are Cagliari and Frosinone in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Frosinone's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.97. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (1.14x) against Cagliari's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
31%
3.25
31%
3.19
38%
2.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.97
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.08
1.11
Frosinone xG
3.25
31%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.64
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
38%
2.64
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.8 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.4 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.97 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.11 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 17W 26D 27L record — D-W-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Frosinone's form line: 35W 19D 16L from 70 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Frosinone are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.34 PPG from 35 outings (12W 11D 12L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 13W 11D 11L from 35 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.56 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Frosinone
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 17W 26D 27L in their last 70 games (1.10 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 35W 19D 16L in their last 70 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.34 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Frosinone in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Frosinone have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Frosinone 3-1 Cagliari.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 69%, Frosinone 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Cagliari) and 40% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Frosinone in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Frosinone?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Cagliari's games and 49% of Frosinone's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Cagliari's recent games and 40% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Frosinone tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cagliari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Frosinone finished level at 0-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.97 xG and Frosinone 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Frosinone landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Frosinone attack 1.14 / defence 0.75, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 31% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 38%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 62% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 44%, Frosinone 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Frosinone's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.