Brescia 1-0 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Brescia welcome Cosenza to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Brescia haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Brescia have posted 2W 3D 5L at Stadio Mario Rigamonti — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Cosenza have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Brescia) versus 1.10 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Brescia, 1 for Cosenza and 3 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jun 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 50% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 35% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.15 xG and Cosenza 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.945 / defence 1.039 | Cosenza attack 0.920 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.041. Data: 38 Brescia games / 41 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 37% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 29%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Cosenza 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 50% | Cosenza 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 3 Sep 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 37% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 45% | xG Brescia 1.15 / Cosenza 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.945 / def 1.039 | Cosenza attack 0.920 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Brescia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Cosenza xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Cosenza kick off?
Brescia vs Cosenza kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Brescia 1 - 0 Cosenza.
Where is Brescia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Cosenza part of?
Brescia vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 37% chance of winning, Cosenza a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Brescia and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cosenza?
Record (6 meetings): Brescia 2W | Draws 3 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Brescia and Cosenza in?
Brescia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-D. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 0.94x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
37%
2.70
34%
2.98
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.14
0.99
Cosenza xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Brescia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Brescia and 0.99 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 9W 14D 17L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. Brescia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cosenza's form line: 9W 15D 16L from 40 games, 1.05 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.02 PPG, Cosenza on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 1W 8D 10L from 19 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.85 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Pre-Season
Cosenza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 9W 14D 17L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 9W 15D 16L in their last 40 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Cosenza away?
Brescia's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.16 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2021, when Brescia won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Brescia's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brescia
4
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cosenza?
From 10 meetings on record, Brescia have won 4, Cosenza have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Cosenza 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Cosenza?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 53%, Cosenza 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Brescia and 37% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Brescia have failed to score in 32% of games; Cosenza in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Brescia's recent matches and 53% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Brescia's recent games and 37% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Cosenza tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Brescia edge out Cosenza 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Brescia beat Cosenza 1-0 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.15 xG and Cosenza 0.99 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cosenza landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Cosenza attack 0.92 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 37% | Draw 34% | Cosenza 29%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 35%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Cosenza's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.02 PPG, Cosenza 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brescia win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.