Brescia 0-2 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 16 as Brescia welcome Monza to Stadio Mario Rigamonti. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 December 2021 at 15:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Brescia have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Brescia have gone 3W 2D 2L this season (7 games, 1.57 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Monza have posted 0W 6D 2L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 0.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Brescia at 1.90 PPG versus Monza's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Brescia trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Monza trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 53% versus Monza 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 47% | Monza 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.17 xG and Monza 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.010 / defence 1.159 | Monza attack 0.636 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 0.992 / away 1.169. Data: 15 Brescia games / 15 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 42% | Draw 32% | Monza 26%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.38 | Draw 3.12 | Monza 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 57% | Monza 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Monza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 42% | Draw 32% | Monza 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Brescia 1.17 / Monza 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.010 / def 1.159 | Monza attack 0.636 / def 1.170 | league avg home 0.992 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Brescia (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Monza xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Monza kick off?
Brescia vs Monza kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Monza?
Brescia 0 - 2 Monza.
Where is Brescia vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Monza part of?
Brescia vs Monza is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 42% chance of winning, Monza a 26% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Brescia and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Monza?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Brescia and Monza in?
Brescia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Monza (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.01x the league average against Monza's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
42%
2.37
32%
3.15
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.03
0.86
Monza xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.45
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
31%
3.23
Win to Nil
18%
5.62
8%
12.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.3 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Brescia and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Brescia and 0.86 for Monza, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Brescia come into this having played 15 games, going 9W 3D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.67 PPG from 15 outings (6W 7D 2L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 2.00 PPG, Monza on 1.67. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Brescia's home form reads 3W 2D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.57 PPG return. That actually lags their 2.00 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Monza have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (0W 5D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Brescia are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.27 scored and 0.93 conceded. Brescia's scoring rate against Monza's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Monza in 60%.
Last 15 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Monza in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Monza have gone 6W 7D 2L in their last 15 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Monza away?
Brescia's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.57 PPG; Monza away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Brescia or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Monza in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Brescia and Monza runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Monza have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Brescia's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Brescia
1
Draws
3
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Monza?
From 4 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Monza have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2022, when Monza 2-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Monza?
Monza have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Brescia see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 57%, Monza 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Brescia) and 29% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Monza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Brescia's games and 71% of Monza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Brescia's recent games and 29% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Monza tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 43% of their recent matches, Monza in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Monza cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Brescia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monza beat Brescia 0-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.17 xG and Monza 0.86 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Monza outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.01 / defence 1.16 against Monza attack 0.64 / defence 1.17, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 42% | Draw 32% | Monza 26%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Monza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 47%, Monza 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 2.00 PPG, Monza 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monza win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward. Monza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.