Benevento 4-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Reggina at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Reggina in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Saturday 27 November 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 3W 2D 2L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.57 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Reggina's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Reggina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Reggina have posted 3W 2D 1L from 6 away outings — 1.83 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 6 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Benevento, 1.70 for Reggina — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Reggina half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 38% versus Reggina 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 31% | Reggina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.05 xG and Reggina 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.119 / defence 1.218 | Reggina attack 0.802 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.009 / away 1.176. Data: 13 Benevento games / 13 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 32% | Draw 31% | Reggina 37%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Reggina 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Reggina as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Reggina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 43% | Reggina 33% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Nov 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 32% | Draw 31% | Reggina 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Benevento 1.05 / Reggina 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.119 / def 1.218 | Reggina attack 0.802 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.009 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Reggina (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Reggina xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Reggina kick off?
Benevento vs Reggina kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 27 November 2021 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Reggina?
Benevento 4 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Benevento vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Reggina part of?
Benevento vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 32% chance of winning, Reggina a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Reggina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Benevento and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Reggina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Benevento and Reggina in?
Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Reggina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.12) and Reggina's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.80x) against Benevento's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reggina Win
32%
3.11
31%
3.24
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.20
1.15
Reggina xG
3.11
32%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
13%
7.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Benevento and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Benevento and 1.15 for Reggina, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Benevento's recent record stands at 5W 4D 4L from 13 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggina, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 3L across 13 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for Reggina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Benevento against 1.69 for Reggina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Reggina's away record stands at 3W 2D 1L across 6 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Reggina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Benevento are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 1.08 scored and 0.85 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Reggina in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Blended
Reggina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Reggina in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Reggina have gone 6W 4D 3L in their last 13 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Reggina away?
Reggina's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.33 PPG; Reggina away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Benevento or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Reggina in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Benevento won 4-0 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Benevento have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Reggina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Benevento
2
Draws
0
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Reggina?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 2, Reggina have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 15 April 2023, when Benevento 1-1 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Reggina?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Benevento see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Benevento) and 33% (Reggina) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Benevento and 0% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Reggina in 50%; Benevento have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Benevento's recent matches and 33% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Benevento vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 0% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Reggina tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Reggina in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Benevento run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Reggina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Reggina 4-0 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.05 xG and Reggina 1.15 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Benevento beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Reggina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.12 / defence 1.22 against Reggina attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 32% | Draw 31% | Reggina 37%, with Reggina to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 31%, Reggina 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Reggina's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Benevento 1.46 PPG, Reggina 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Benevento win broke the near-deadlock. Benevento (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.