Benevento vs Palermo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Benevento vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Ciro Vigorito plays host to Benevento versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Benevento have collected 1.57 PPG across 7 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W W D. They are averaging 1.43 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Benevento have posted 2W 2D 1L at Stadio Ciro Vigorito — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Palermo (all games): 7W 1D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Palermo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Palermo's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 0.63 PPG clear of Benevento in recent Serie B fixtures (2.20 vs 1.57). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Benevento 0W, Palermo 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Benevento — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Palermo — key trading statistics (7 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Benevento 57% and Palermo 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Benevento 43% | Palermo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.30 xG and Palermo 1.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.034 / defence 1.073 | Palermo attack 1.336 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.261. Palermo have an above-average attack strength of 1.336 — the away xG of 1.81 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 7 Benevento games / 45 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 26% | Palermo 48%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Palermo 2.08. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.81) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.11 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Benevento 80% | Palermo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 26% | Draw 26% | Palermo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Benevento 1.30 / Palermo 1.81 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.034 / def 1.073 | Palermo attack 1.336 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.261 • Poisson stance: Palermo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.81
Palermo xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Palermo kick off?
Benevento vs Palermo is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Where is Benevento vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Palermo part of?
Benevento vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 26% chance of winning, Palermo a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Benevento and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 0W | Draws 1 | Palermo 1W.
What form are Benevento and Palermo in?
Benevento (all comps): 3W-2D-2L in 7 | 1.57 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Palermo (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Benevento's attack rating (1.03) and Palermo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.34x) against Benevento's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.81.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
26%
3.80
26%
3.89
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Benevento xG
Total xG
3.11
1.81
Palermo xG
3.80
26%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
16%
6.10
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
4%
23.17
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.8 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Benevento and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Benevento and 1.81 for Palermo, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Benevento come into this having played 7 games, going 3W 2D 2L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Palermo sit at 2.71 PPG from 7 outings (6W 1D 0L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Palermo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Palermo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.14 PPG clear of Benevento — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Benevento's home form reads 2W 2D 0L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Benevento are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palermo have taken 2.50 points per game from 4 outings (3W 1D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palermo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Benevento are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 2.29 scored and 1.00 conceded. Palermo's attacking output running into Benevento's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Palermo in 71%.
Last 7 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Early Season
Palermo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Palermo in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 3W 2D 2L in their last 7 games (1.57 PPG), while Palermo have gone 6W 1D 0L in their last 7 (2.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 2.00 PPG; Palermo away: 2.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Benevento
1
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Palermo?
From 2 meetings on record, Benevento have won 0, Palermo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Palermo 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Benevento are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palermo tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Benevento, 75% for Palermo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Benevento) and 50% (Palermo).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Benevento's games and 75% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Benevento's recent games and 50% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Palermo tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Palermo in 25% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.