Benevento 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Benevento at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Benevento vs Cosenza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 1 as Benevento welcome Cosenza to Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Benevento — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Benevento haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Benevento's home record at Stadio Ciro Vigorito: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cosenza stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cosenza haven't played a Serie B game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cosenza away from home this season: 0W 4D 6L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Benevento) versus 1.40 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Benevento, 1 for Cosenza and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2022, ended 0–1 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Benevento in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Benevento 40% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Benevento 40% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Benevento 1.69 xG and Cosenza 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Benevento attack 1.108 / defence 0.998 | Cosenza attack 0.951 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.093. Data: 38 Benevento games / 38 Cosenza games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Benevento 52% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 22%. Fair-value odds: Benevento 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Cosenza 4.55. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Benevento at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Benevento offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Benevento 50% | Cosenza 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Benevento vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Ciro Vigorito • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Benevento 52% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Benevento 1.69 / Cosenza 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Benevento attack 1.108 / def 0.998 | Cosenza attack 0.951 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Benevento (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Benevento xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cosenza xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Benevento vs Cosenza kick off?
Benevento vs Cosenza kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What was the final score in Benevento vs Cosenza?
Benevento 0 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Benevento vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
What competition is Benevento vs Cosenza part of?
Benevento vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Benevento vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Benevento a 52% chance of winning, Cosenza a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Benevento and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Benevento vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cosenza?
Record (2 meetings): Benevento 1W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Benevento and Cosenza in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Benevento (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Benevento's attack at 1.11x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Benevento's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
52%
1.94
26%
3.83
22%
4.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Benevento xG
Total xG
2.72
1.04
Cosenza xG
1.94
52%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
4.49
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.41
Win to Nil
18%
5.46
4%
24.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Benevento vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Benevento and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Benevento and 1.04 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Benevento vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Benevento's recent record stands at 19W 9D 12L from 40 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. Benevento haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cosenza, meanwhile, have gone 9W 11D 20L across 40 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-D-W-L-W in their last five. Cosenza haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours Benevento by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cosenza heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Benevento have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cosenza's away record stands at 0W 8D 11L across 19 trips, a 0.42 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.95 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Benevento are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.95 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Benevento
Pre-Season
Cosenza
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Benevento and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Benevento have gone 19W 9D 12L in their last 40 games (1.65 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 9W 11D 20L in their last 40 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Benevento at home or Cosenza away?
Benevento's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Benevento at home: 1.79 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.42 PPG.
Have Benevento or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Benevento have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cosenza in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Oct 2021, when Benevento won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Benevento's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Benevento
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Benevento and Cosenza?
From 4 meetings on record, Benevento have won 1, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Benevento and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 15 January 2023, when Cosenza 1-1 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Benevento and Cosenza?
Cosenza have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Benevento see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Benevento 47%, Cosenza 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Benevento) and 42% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Benevento keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Benevento have failed to score in 26% of games; Cosenza in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Benevento home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Benevento play Cosenza?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Benevento's games and 63% of Cosenza's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Benevento vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Benevento's recent games and 42% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Benevento and Cosenza tend to score early?
Benevento have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Benevento 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Benevento 0-1 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Benevento 1.69 xG and Cosenza 1.04 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Benevento fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Benevento attack 1.11 / defence 1.00 against Cosenza attack 0.95 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Benevento 52% | Draw 26% | Cosenza 22%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Cosenza win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Benevento 40%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Benevento's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Cosenza winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.