Bari 1-1 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bari at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bari vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sassuolo make the trip to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to face Bari in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Bari (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Bari have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bari's home record at Stadio Comunale San Nicola: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sassuolo's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 0W 3D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Bari have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Sassuolo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 65% and Sassuolo 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 42% | Sassuolo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.42 xG and Sassuolo 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.962 / defence 1.184 | Sassuolo attack 0.859 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Bari games / 2 Sassuolo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bari 42% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 32%. Fair-value odds: Bari 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Sassuolo 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bari at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bari 70% | Sassuolo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Aug 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 42% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Bari 1.42 / Sassuolo 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.962 / def 1.184 | Sassuolo attack 0.859 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Bari (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Sassuolo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Sassuolo kick off?
Bari vs Sassuolo kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 27 August 2024 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Sassuolo?
Bari 1 - 1 Sassuolo.
Where is Bari vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Sassuolo part of?
Bari vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 42% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Bari and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Sassuolo in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bari's attack rating (0.96) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.86x) against Bari's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
42%
2.39
26%
3.81
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Bari xG
Total xG
2.62
1.20
Sassuolo xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
8%
12.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.4 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bari and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Bari and 1.20 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Bari have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 8W 17D 15L record — W-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo's form line: 8W 10D 22L from 40 games, 0.85 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Bari against 0.85 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.35 PPG from 20 outings (6W 9D 5L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 2W 5D 13L from 20 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.15 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Sassuolo in 62%.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 8W 17D 15L in their last 40 games (1.02 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 8W 10D 22L in their last 40 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Sassuolo away?
Bari's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.35 PPG; Sassuolo away: 0.55 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bari
2
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Sassuolo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Sassuolo 1-1 Bari.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Bari, 65% for Sassuolo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bari) and 60% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Sassuolo in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Bari's games and 65% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bari's recent games and 60% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Sassuolo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 3, as Bari and Sassuolo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.42 xG and Sassuolo 1.20 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against Sassuolo attack 0.86 / defence 1.10, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bari 42% | Draw 26% | Sassuolo 32%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 42%, Sassuolo 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Sassuolo's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.02 PPG, Sassuolo 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sassuolo (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.10 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.