Bari 1-1 Pescara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bari at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Pescara encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Pescara travel to Stadio San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Bari — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's home record at Stadio San Nicola: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Pescara have recorded 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pescara, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Pescara have posted 0W 2D 4L from 6 away outings — 0.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.17 goals scored and 2.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Bari have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Bari register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Pescara in 83% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Pescara in-play tendencies (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 57% and Pescara 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 50% | Pescara 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 2.32 xG and Pescara 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 1.060 / defence 1.021 | Pescara attack 0.980 / defence 1.614. League average goals — home 1.357 / away 1.065. Pescara bring a strong defensive rating of 1.614 — this is suppressing Bari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Bari games / 14 Pescara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 64% | Draw 21% | Pescara 15%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.56 | Draw 4.76 | Pescara 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Bari (64%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.07) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.39 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Bari 60% | Pescara 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Pescara | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio San Nicola • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 64% | Draw 21% | Pescara 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Bari 2.32 / Pescara 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 1.060 / def 1.021 | Pescara attack 0.980 / def 1.614 | league avg home 1.357 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Bari (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Pescara xG
60%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Pescara kick off?
Bari vs Pescara kicked off at 16:15 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Stadio San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Pescara?
Bari 1 - 1 Pescara.
Where is Bari vs Pescara being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Pescara part of?
Bari vs Pescara is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Pescara?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 64% chance of winning, Pescara a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Bari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Pescara?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Bari and Pescara will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Pescara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pescara?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bari and Pescara in?
Bari (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-D. Pescara (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Pescara's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, Pescara's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (9.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bari Win
64%
1.55
21%
4.85
15%
6.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Bari xG
Total xG
3.39
1.07
Pescara xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.85
21%
Draw
6.66
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
10%
10.18
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
1%
67.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.7 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Pescara?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Bari and Pescara expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Bari and 1.07 for Pescara, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Pescara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Bari have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 3W 5D 6L record — W-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pescara's form line: 1W 6D 7L from 14 games, 0.64 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L. The sample for Pescara is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bari on 1.00 PPG, Pescara on 0.64. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Bari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Pescara have gone 0W 2D 4L from 6 away games — 0.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Pescara are on 1.29 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pescara in 71%.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Blended
Pescara
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Pescara in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Pescara have gone 1W 6D 7L in their last 14 (0.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Pescara away?
Bari's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.83 PPG; Pescara away: 0.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Pescara runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Bari
1
Draws
1
Pescara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pescara?
From 2 meetings on record, Bari have won 0, Pescara have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Pescara last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Pescara 4-0 Bari.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Pescara?
Pescara have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Pescara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Bari at 67%, Pescara at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bari) and 83% (Pescara). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bari keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Pescara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Pescara?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bari's games and 83% of Pescara's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Pescara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Bari's matches and 83% of Pescara's.
Do Bari and Pescara tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Pescara in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bari and Pescara share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari and Pescara finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Nicola, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 2.32 xG and Pescara 1.07 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Bari fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 1.06 / defence 1.02 against Pescara attack 0.98 / defence 1.61, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 64% | Draw 21% | Pescara 15%, with Bari to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 50%, Pescara 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Pescara's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bari 1.00 PPG, Pescara 0.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Pescara (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.