Bari 1-0 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bari at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bari face Feralpisalo.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Bari and Feralpisalo meet at Stadio Comunale San Nicola in Serie B (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 17 February 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Current Form

Bari's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Bari's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Feralpisalo have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Feralpisalo's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Bari against 1.40 for Feralpisalo. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Bari's last 10 home games and Feralpisalo's last 10 away games) — Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Feralpisalo in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Bari, 0 for Feralpisalo and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 6.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Bari 3–3 Feralpisalo — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 6.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Bari half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Feralpisalo half-time and goal-timing data (last 24 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bari 58% versus Feralpisalo 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 42% | Feralpisalo 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.57 xG and Feralpisalo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.955 / defence 0.995 | Feralpisalo attack 0.785 / defence 1.243. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.198. Feralpisalo's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bari's projected output up. Feralpisalo's attack rating of 0.785 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.94. Data: built from Bari's last 62 games and Feralpisalo's last 24.

Result probabilities: Bari 51% | Draw 28% | Feralpisalo 21%. Fair-value odds: Bari 1.96 | Draw 3.59 | Feralpisalo 4.72. Bari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bari are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bari if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.51 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Bari 60% (last 10 home games) | Feralpisalo 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights