Avellino 1-1 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Venezia at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Avellino vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Avellino welcome Venezia to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Kick-off is set for Monday 8 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Avellino — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Avellino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Avellino have posted 3W 1D 2L at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Venezia have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Venezia have posted 1W 6D 3L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Venezia — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Avellino in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Venezia in-play and half-time data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 43% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 50% | Venezia 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 0.840 / defence 1.549 | Venezia attack 0.943 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.369 / away 1.085. Data: 14 Avellino games / 14 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Avellino 26% | Draw 27% | Venezia 46%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 2.17. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Venezia are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 33% | Venezia 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Venezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 26% | Draw 27% | Venezia 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Avellino 1.15 / Venezia 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 0.840 / def 1.549 | Venezia attack 0.943 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.369 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Venezia (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Venezia xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Venezia kick off?
Avellino vs Venezia kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What was the final score in Avellino vs Venezia?
Avellino 1 - 1 Venezia.
Where is Avellino vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Venezia part of?
Avellino vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 26% chance of winning, Venezia a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Avellino and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Venezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Avellino and Venezia in?
Avellino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-W. Venezia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Avellino's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
26%
3.79
27%
3.65
46%
2.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.73
1.58
Venezia xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.16
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
20%
4.88
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
18.50
15%
6.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Avellino and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Avellino and 1.58 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Avellino come into this having played 14 games, going 5W 4D 5L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Avellino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.79 PPG from 14 outings (7W 4D 3L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Avellino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Avellino's home form reads 3W 1D 2L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.00 points per game from 6 outings (1W 3D 2L). That's a step down from their 1.79 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avellino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Avellino are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.79 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Venezia in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 5W 4D 5L in their last 14 games (1.36 PPG), while Venezia have gone 7W 4D 3L in their last 14 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Venezia away?
Avellino's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.67 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Avellino or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Venezia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Avellino and Venezia runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 3 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Avellino
1
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Venezia?
From 2 meetings on record, Avellino have won 0, Venezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2026, when Venezia 4-0 Avellino.
Who has won more matches between Avellino and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 33%, Venezia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Avellino) and 50% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Venezia in 33%; Avellino have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Avellino's recent matches and 67% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Avellino vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Avellino's matches and 50% of Venezia's.
Do Avellino and Venezia tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Venezia in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Avellino and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Avellino and Venezia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Avellino 1.15 xG and Venezia 1.58 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Avellino attack 0.84 / defence 1.55 against Venezia attack 0.94 / defence 1.00, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Avellino 26% | Draw 27% | Venezia 46%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Avellino 50%, Venezia 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Avellino's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Venezia's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Avellino (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.