Avellino vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Avellino at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Avellino vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Carrarese travel to Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi to take on Avellino. The game is scheduled for Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie B games this season, Avellino have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Avellino have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Avellino at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Carrarese have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Carrarese's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Avellino 1.30 PPG, Carrarese 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Avellino, 1 for Carrarese and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Jan 2026, ended 1–2 with Carrarese winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Avellino in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Carrarese in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Avellino 50% versus Carrarese 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Avellino 50% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Avellino 1.54 xG and Carrarese 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Avellino attack 1.090 / defence 0.962 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.180. Data: 40 Avellino games / 40 Carrarese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Avellino 48% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 25%. Fair-value odds: Avellino 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Carrarese 4.00. Avellino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Avellino at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Avellino offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.59 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Avellino 40% | Carrarese 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Avellino vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi • Kick-off: Saturday 8 May 2027, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Avellino 48% | Draw 28% | Carrarese 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Avellino 1.54 / Carrarese 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Avellino attack 1.090 / def 0.962 | Carrarese attack 0.924 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Avellino (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Avellino xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Carrarese xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Avellino vs Carrarese kick off?
Avellino vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Saturday 8 May 2027 at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Where is Avellino vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
What competition is Avellino vs Carrarese part of?
Avellino vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Avellino vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Avellino a 48% chance of winning, Carrarese a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Avellino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Avellino vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Avellino and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Avellino vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Carrarese?
Record (2 meetings): Avellino 1W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Avellino and Carrarese in?
Avellino (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Avellino's attack rating (1.09) and Carrarese's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Avellino's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Avellino Win
48%
2.10
28%
3.62
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Avellino xG
Total xG
2.59
1.05
Carrarese xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
21%
4.68
Win to Nil
17%
5.98
5%
19.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.1 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Avellino vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Avellino and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Avellino and 1.05 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Avellino vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Avellino have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 14W 10D 16L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Avellino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Carrarese's form line: 10W 15D 15L from 40 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Carrarese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Avellino on 1.30 PPG, Carrarese on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Avellino have posted 1.60 PPG from 20 outings (9W 5D 6L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 3W 7D 10L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Avellino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Avellino are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.23 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Avellino
Early Season
Carrarese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Avellino and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Avellino have gone 14W 10D 16L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 10W 15D 15L in their last 40 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Avellino at home or Carrarese away?
Avellino's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Avellino at home: 1.60 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Avellino or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Avellino have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Carrarese in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Avellino and Carrarese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Avellino
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Avellino and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Avellino have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Avellino and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Avellino 1-2 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Avellino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Avellino 50%, Carrarese 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Avellino) and 55% (Carrarese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Avellino keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Avellino home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Avellino play Carrarese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Avellino's games and 65% of Carrarese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Avellino vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Avellino's matches and 55% of Carrarese's.
Do Avellino and Carrarese tend to score early?
Avellino have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.