Ascoli 1-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ascoli at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Cosenza meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 13 May 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Ascoli (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Ascoli at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ascoli have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Cosenza in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Ascoli have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with Cosenza managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Dec 2022, ended 3–1 with Ascoli winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Ascoli and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Cosenza — key trading statistics (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 49% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 39% | Cosenza 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.51 xG and Cosenza 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 1.008 / defence 1.058 | Cosenza attack 0.688 / defence 1.286. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.022. Cosenza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.286 — this is suppressing Ascoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Ascoli games / 74 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 54% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 17%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 1.85 | Draw 3.45 | Cosenza 5.88. Ascoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ascoli if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 30% | Cosenza 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 54% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Ascoli 1.51 / Cosenza 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 1.008 / def 1.058 | Cosenza attack 0.688 / def 1.286 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.022 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Cosenza xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cosenza kick off?
Ascoli vs Cosenza kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Ascoli 1 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Ascoli vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cosenza part of?
Ascoli vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 54% chance of winning, Cosenza a 17% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Ascoli and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cosenza?
Record (3 meetings): Ascoli 3W | Draws 0 | Cosenza 0W.
What form are Ascoli and Cosenza in?
Ascoli (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Cosenza (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ascoli's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (0.69x) against Ascoli's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
54%
1.85
29%
3.40
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Ascoli xG
Total xG
2.26
0.74
Cosenza xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
4%
27.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 11.8 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.74 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 75 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 31W 18D 26L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 18W 23D 34L from 75 games, 1.03 PPG, last five D-D-D-L-D.
Put side by side, Ascoli are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cosenza.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.35 PPG from 37 outings (13W 11D 13L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 2W 13D 22L from 37 away games — 0.51 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.03 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cosenza's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ascoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.89 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 31W 18D 26L in their last 75 games (1.48 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 23D 34L in their last 75 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cosenza away?
Ascoli's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.35 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cosenza have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cosenza won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Cosenza?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 49%, Cosenza 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Ascoli) and 40% (Cosenza).
On the defensive side: Ascoli have failed to score in 35% of games; Cosenza in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Ascoli's recent matches and 51% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Ascoli's recent games and 40% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Cosenza tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Cosenza in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ascoli and Cosenza share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 37, as Ascoli and Cosenza drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.51 xG and Cosenza 0.74 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Cosenza attack 0.69 / defence 1.29, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 54% | Draw 29% | Cosenza 17%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 39%, Cosenza 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.