Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Ascoli take on Cosenza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ascoli and Cosenza meet at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Ascoli (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Ascoli at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Cosenza's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Ascoli, 1 for Cosenza and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with Cosenza winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Ascoli — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Cosenza — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ascoli 48% versus Cosenza 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 37% | Cosenza 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 0.89 xG and Cosenza 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.808 / defence 0.775 | Cosenza attack 1.031 / defence 0.916. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.180. Ascoli's defence rating of 0.775 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 73 Ascoli games / 73 Cosenza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 30% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 32%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | Cosenza 3.12. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.83 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 40% | Cosenza 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 30% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 39% | xG Ascoli 0.89 / Cosenza 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.808 / def 0.775 | Cosenza attack 1.031 / def 0.916 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cosenza xG
39%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Cosenza kick off?
Ascoli vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Ascoli 0 - 1 Cosenza.
Where is Ascoli vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Cosenza part of?
Ascoli vs Cosenza is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 30% chance of winning, Cosenza a 32% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ascoli and Cosenza will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cosenza?
Record (5 meetings): Ascoli 3W | Draws 1 | Cosenza 1W.
What form are Ascoli and Cosenza in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. Cosenza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Cosenza's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Cosenza's attack (1.03x) against Ascoli's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.38
38%
2.64
32%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.83
0.94
Cosenza xG
3.38
30%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
3.08
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
41%
2.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 15.1 | 7.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.94 for Cosenza, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Ascoli have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 20W 24D 29L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 18W 26D 29L from 73 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Ascoli against 1.10 for Cosenza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ascoli have posted 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (10W 14D 12L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 6W 13D 17L from 36 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ascoli are averaging 1.01 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 0.99 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Current Season
Cosenza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 20W 24D 29L in their last 73 games (1.15 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 18W 26D 29L in their last 73 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ascoli at home or Cosenza away?
Ascoli's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ascoli at home: 1.22 PPG; Cosenza away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Ascoli or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cosenza in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cosenza have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cosenza won 3-0 on 19 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ascoli have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cosenza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ascoli
1
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Cosenza?
From 6 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 3, Cosenza have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Cosenza last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2024, when Ascoli 0-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Cosenza?
Ascoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ascoli see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Cosenza see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ascoli 47%, Cosenza 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Ascoli and 31% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Ascoli have failed to score in 39% of games; Cosenza in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Cosenza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Ascoli's recent matches and 42% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Cosenza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Ascoli's recent games and 31% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Ascoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Ascoli 0-1 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 0.89 xG and Cosenza 0.94 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Ascoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.81 / defence 0.78 against Cosenza attack 1.03 / defence 0.92, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 30% | Draw 38% | Cosenza 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 57% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 37%, Cosenza 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cosenza's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ascoli 1.15 PPG, Cosenza 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Ascoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.