Ascoli 0-2 Benevento – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Ascoli at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ascoli vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 4 as Ascoli welcome Benevento to Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 September 2021 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Ascoli — All Games: 3W 0D 0L from 3 Serie B outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.67 goals per game, with 0.67 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 3 games (67%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Ascoli have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Benevento stand at 1W 1D 1L from 3 Serie B matches — 1.33 PPG. Last five: W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.33 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ascoli carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.67 PPG ahead of their opponents on 3.00 vs 1.33. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Trading Patterns
Ascoli in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time.
Benevento in-play and half-time data (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ascoli 33% | Benevento 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ascoli 33% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ascoli 1.06 xG and Benevento 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ascoli attack 0.877 / defence 1.013 | Benevento attack 0.703 / defence 1.129. League average goals — home 1.075 / away 1.262. Data: 3 Ascoli games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ascoli 38% | Draw 33% | Benevento 29%. Fair-value odds: Ascoli 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Benevento 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ascoli as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ascoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.96 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Ascoli 33% | Benevento 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ascoli vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Sep 2021, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ascoli 38% | Draw 33% | Benevento 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 40% | xG Ascoli 1.06 / Benevento 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ascoli attack 0.877 / def 1.013 | Benevento attack 0.703 / def 1.129 | league avg home 1.075 / away 1.262 • Poisson stance: Ascoli (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Ascoli xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Benevento xG
40%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ascoli vs Benevento kick off?
Ascoli vs Benevento kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 18 September 2021 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What was the final score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
Ascoli 0 - 2 Benevento.
Where is Ascoli vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
What competition is Ascoli vs Benevento part of?
Ascoli vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Ascoli a 38% chance of winning, Benevento a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Ascoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Ascoli and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Ascoli vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ascoli and Benevento in?
Ascoli (all comps): 3W-0D-0L in 3 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 0.67 | L5 W-W-W. Benevento (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.33 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Ascoli's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Benevento's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Ascoli's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ascoli Win
38%
2.63
33%
3.06
29%
3.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Ascoli xG
Total xG
1.96
0.90
Benevento xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.41
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 12.6 | 5.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ascoli vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Ascoli and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ascoli and 0.90 for Benevento, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Ascoli vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Ascoli's recent record stands at 3W 0D 0L from 3 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ascoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 1L across 3 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ascoli by 1.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
Goals in Recent Form
Ascoli are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ascoli
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ascoli and Benevento in coming into this match?
Ascoli have gone 3W 0D 0L in their last 3 games (3.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 (1.33 PPG).
Have Ascoli or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ascoli have kept a clean sheet in 67% of their recent games, Benevento in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Ascoli's record when hosting Benevento specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Ascoli
2
Draws
2
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ascoli and Benevento?
From 5 meetings on record, Ascoli have won 1, Benevento have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ascoli and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 26 February 2023, when Ascoli 0-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Ascoli and Benevento?
Benevento have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Ascoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Ascoli 33% BTTS, Benevento 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Ascoli and 33% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Ascoli keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Benevento in 33%; Benevento in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ascoli home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ascoli play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Ascoli's recent matches and 33% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ascoli vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ascoli's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ascoli and Benevento tend to score early?
Ascoli have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Benevento cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Ascoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Benevento beat Ascoli 0-2 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ascoli 1.06 xG and Benevento 0.90 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Ascoli fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Benevento outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ascoli attack 0.88 / defence 1.01 against Benevento attack 0.70 / defence 1.13, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ascoli 38% | Draw 33% | Benevento 29%, with Ascoli to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Benevento win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ascoli 33%, Benevento 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ascoli's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.
Benevento's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ascoli arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.33. Form was overturned, with Benevento winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Ascoli managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Benevento conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.