Alessandria 0-0 Reggina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Alessandria at 38%, yet in-form Reggina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Alessandria vs Reggina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Alessandria and Reggina meet at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Monday 25 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Alessandria's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L D L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Alessandria's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Reggina (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Reggina's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Reggina are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Alessandria 1W, Reggina 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 4–0 with Alessandria winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Alessandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Reggina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 49% versus Reggina 34%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 46% | Reggina 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 1.10 xG and Reggina 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.868 / defence 1.276 | Reggina attack 0.650 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.046 / away 1.073. Reggina bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Alessandria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Alessandria games / 35 Reggina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 38% | Draw 35% | Reggina 27%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 2.63 | Draw 2.86 | Reggina 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Alessandria are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Reggina (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Alessandria if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 50% | Reggina 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Reggina | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Monday 25 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 38% | Draw 35% | Reggina 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 42% | xG Alessandria 1.10 / Reggina 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.868 / def 1.276 | Reggina attack 0.650 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.046 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Alessandria (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Reggina xG
42%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Reggina kick off?
Alessandria vs Reggina kicked off at 14:00 on Monday 25 April 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Reggina?
Alessandria 0 - 0 Reggina.
Where is Alessandria vs Reggina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Reggina part of?
Alessandria vs Reggina is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Reggina?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 38% chance of winning, Reggina a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Alessandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Reggina?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Alessandria and Reggina will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Reggina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Reggina?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 1W | Draws 0 | Reggina 0W.
What form are Alessandria and Reggina in?
Alessandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-W. Reggina (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Alessandria's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Reggina's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — Reggina's attack (0.65x) against Alessandria's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Alessandria Win
38%
2.65
35%
2.82
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Alessandria xG
Total xG
1.99
0.89
Reggina xG
2.65
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
41%
2.44
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
9%
11.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 12.2 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Reggina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Reggina expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Alessandria and 0.89 for Reggina, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Reggina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alessandria come into this having played 35 games, going 8W 8D 19L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Reggina sit at 1.34 PPG from 35 outings (13W 8D 14L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five.
Reggina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Alessandria — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Alessandria's home form reads 5W 5D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggina have taken 1.06 points per game from 17 outings (4W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alessandria are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Reggina are on 0.86 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Current Season
Reggina
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Reggina in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 8W 8D 19L in their last 35 games (0.91 PPG), while Reggina have gone 13W 8D 14L in their last 35 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Reggina away?
Alessandria's home record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.18 PPG; Reggina away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Reggina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Reggina in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Alessandria
1
Draws
0
Reggina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Reggina?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 1, Reggina have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Reggina last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2022, when Alessandria 0-0 Reggina.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Reggina?
Alessandria have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alessandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Reggina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 47%, Reggina 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Alessandria and 18% for Reggina.
On the defensive side: Reggina in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Reggina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Reggina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Alessandria's recent matches and 35% of Reggina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Reggina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Alessandria's recent games and 18% of Reggina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Reggina tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Reggina in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Alessandria's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria and Reggina finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 1.10 xG and Reggina 0.89 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Alessandria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Reggina landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.87 / defence 1.28 against Reggina attack 0.65 / defence 1.21, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 38% | Draw 35% | Reggina 27%, with Alessandria to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 46%, Reggina 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggina's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Reggina arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Alessandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Reggina (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.