Alessandria 1-2 Perugia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Perugia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alessandria vs Perugia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Perugia make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta to face Alessandria in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Alessandria have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Alessandria have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Alessandria are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta than their overall form suggests.
Perugia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Perugia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Perugia's form when playing away from home: 4W 5D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Perugia are 0.80 PPG clear of Alessandria in recent Serie B fixtures (1.70 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Alessandria, 0 for Perugia and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Alessandria half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Perugia half-time and goal-timing data (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 46% versus Perugia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 33% | Perugia 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.88 xG and Perugia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.873 / defence 1.064 | Perugia attack 0.927 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 0.963 / away 1.169. Data: 24 Alessandria games / 24 Perugia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 25% | Draw 36% | Perugia 39%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 4.00 | Draw 2.78 | Perugia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Perugia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Perugia if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.03 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 30% | Perugia 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Perugia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Feb 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 25% | Draw 36% | Perugia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 43% | xG Alessandria 0.88 / Perugia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.873 / def 1.064 | Perugia attack 0.927 / def 1.048 | league avg home 0.963 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Perugia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Perugia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Perugia kick off?
Alessandria vs Perugia kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 22 February 2022 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Perugia?
Alessandria 1 - 2 Perugia.
Where is Alessandria vs Perugia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Perugia part of?
Alessandria vs Perugia is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Perugia?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 25% chance of winning, Perugia a 39% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Perugia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Perugia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Alessandria and Perugia will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Perugia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Perugia?
Record (1 meetings): Alessandria 0W | Draws 1 | Perugia 0W.
What form are Alessandria and Perugia in?
Alessandria (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Perugia (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alessandria's attack rating (0.87) and Perugia's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Perugia's attack (0.93x) against Alessandria's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 24/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Perugia Win
25%
4.03
36%
2.76
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Alessandria xG
Total xG
2.03
1.15
Perugia xG
4.03
25%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
41%
2.41
Win to Nil
8%
12.76
16%
6.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 15.1 | 8.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Perugia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Perugia expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.15 for Perugia, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Perugia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Alessandria have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 6W 5D 13L record — L-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Perugia's form line: 9W 11D 4L from 24 games, 1.58 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-D. The sample for Perugia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Perugia are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Alessandria.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Alessandria have posted 1.25 PPG from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
On the road, Perugia have gone 5W 6D 1L from 12 away games — 1.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Perugia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alessandria are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Perugia are on 1.12 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Perugia in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Perugia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Perugia in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 6W 5D 13L in their last 24 games (0.96 PPG), while Perugia have gone 9W 11D 4L in their last 24 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Perugia away?
Perugia's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.25 PPG; Perugia away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Perugia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Perugia in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
1
Draws
1
Perugia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Perugia?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Perugia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Perugia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Alessandria 1-2 Perugia.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Perugia?
Perugia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Perugia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 42%, Perugia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Alessandria and 42% for Perugia.
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Perugia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Perugia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Perugia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Alessandria's recent matches and 50% of Perugia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Perugia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Alessandria's recent games and 42% of Perugia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Alessandria and Perugia tend to score early?
Alessandria have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Perugia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Perugia edge out Alessandria 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Perugia beat Alessandria 1-2 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.88 xG and Perugia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Perugia outscored their 1.15 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.87 / defence 1.06 against Perugia attack 0.93 / defence 1.05, drawn from 24/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 25% | Draw 36% | Perugia 39%, with Perugia to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 33%, Perugia 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Perugia's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Perugia arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Alessandria (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Perugia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.