Alessandria 1-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Frosinone at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Alessandria vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Frosinone make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta to face Alessandria in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Thursday 28 October 2021 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
Alessandria (all games): 2W 1D 6L across 9 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.78 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.11 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Alessandria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Alessandria's home record at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Serie B appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.78 — Alessandria are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta than their overall form suggests.
Frosinone have collected 1.56 PPG across 9 Serie B outings this season: 3W 5D 1L. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 0.78 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.78 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Frosinone have posted 2W 2D 0L from 4 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 0.25 conceded per game. 3 away clean sheets from 4 games (75%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Frosinone are the stronger side — 0.78 PPG clear of the hosts (1.56 vs 0.78). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Alessandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Alessandria 56% versus Frosinone 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Alessandria 44% | Frosinone 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Alessandria 0.73 xG and Frosinone 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Alessandria attack 0.813 / defence 1.215 | Frosinone attack 0.904 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.129. Data: 9 Alessandria games / 9 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Alessandria 20% | Draw 34% | Frosinone 46%. Fair-value odds: Alessandria 5.00 | Draw 2.94 | Frosinone 2.17. Frosinone hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Frosinone are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Frosinone if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.97 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Alessandria 50% | Frosinone 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Alessandria vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Alessandria 20% | Draw 34% | Frosinone 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Alessandria 0.73 / Frosinone 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Alessandria attack 0.813 / def 1.215 | Frosinone attack 0.904 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Frosinone (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Alessandria xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Frosinone xG
39%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Alessandria vs Frosinone kick off?
Alessandria vs Frosinone kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What was the final score in Alessandria vs Frosinone?
Alessandria 1 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Alessandria vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
What competition is Alessandria vs Frosinone part of?
Alessandria vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Alessandria vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Alessandria a 20% chance of winning, Frosinone a 46% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Frosinone the favourite.
Will both teams score in Alessandria vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Alessandria and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Alessandria vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Alessandria and Frosinone in?
Alessandria (all comps): 2W-1D-6L in 9 | 0.78 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Frosinone (all comps): 3W-5D-1L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 0.78 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Alessandria's attack rating (0.81) and Frosinone's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 0.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.90x) against Alessandria's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Frosinone Win
20%
5.03
34%
2.94
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Alessandria xG
Total xG
1.97
1.24
Frosinone xG
5.03
20%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
6%
17.36
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 17.2 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Alessandria vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Alessandria and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Alessandria and 1.24 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Alessandria vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Alessandria's recent record stands at 2W 1D 6L from 9 games, a 0.78 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Alessandria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone, meanwhile, have gone 3W 5D 1L across 9 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Frosinone by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Alessandria heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Alessandria have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.78 PPG overall — Alessandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Frosinone's away record stands at 2W 2D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.56 PPG overall record — Frosinone travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Frosinone come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Alessandria are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.22 scored and 0.78 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Alessandria
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Alessandria and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Alessandria have gone 2W 1D 6L in their last 9 games (0.78 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 3W 5D 1L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Alessandria at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Alessandria at home: 1.50 PPG; Frosinone away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Alessandria or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Alessandria have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Frosinone in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 March 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Alessandria
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Alessandria and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Alessandria have won 0, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Alessandria and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 12 March 2022, when Frosinone 3-0 Alessandria.
Who has won more matches between Alessandria and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Alessandria see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Frosinone see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Alessandria 50%, Frosinone 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Alessandria and 0% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Alessandria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Frosinone in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Alessandria home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Alessandria play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Alessandria's recent matches and 25% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Alessandria vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Alessandria's recent games and 0% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Alessandria and Frosinone share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Alessandria and Frosinone finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Alessandria 0.73 xG and Frosinone 1.24 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Alessandria attack 0.81 / defence 1.22 against Frosinone attack 0.90 / defence 0.85, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Alessandria 20% | Draw 34% | Frosinone 46%, with Frosinone to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Alessandria 44%, Frosinone 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Alessandria's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.