Venezia 0-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Torino at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Torino make the trip to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to face Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 30 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Venezia (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Torino in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Venezia lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Feb 2022, ended 2–1 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Venezia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Torino 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 68% | Torino 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.25 xG and Torino 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Torino attack 1.057 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.147. Data: 2 Venezia games / 40 Torino games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Venezia 30% | Draw 33% | Torino 37%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Torino 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Torino at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 60% | Torino 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Friday 30 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 30% | Draw 33% | Torino 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Venezia 1.25 / Torino 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Torino attack 1.057 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Torino (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Torino xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Torino kick off?
Venezia vs Torino kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 30 August 2024 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Torino?
Venezia 0 - 1 Torino.
Where is Venezia vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Torino part of?
Venezia vs Torino is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 30% chance of winning, Torino a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Venezia and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Torino?
Record (2 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 1 | Torino 0W.
What form are Venezia and Torino in?
Venezia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Torino (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Venezia's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. Flip it around — Torino's attack (1.06x) against Venezia's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
The sample (2/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
30%
3.30
33%
3.07
37%
2.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.64
1.39
Torino xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.70
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
11%
9.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.4 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.2 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Venezia and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Venezia and 1.39 for Torino, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 22W 7D 11L record — W-D-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Torino's form line: 14W 15D 11L from 40 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Torino.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Venezia have posted 2.32 PPG from 19 outings (14W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Torino have gone 5W 6D 8L from 19 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Venezia are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.00 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; Torino in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Torino
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Torino in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 22W 7D 11L in their last 40 games (1.82 PPG), while Torino have gone 14W 15D 11L in their last 40 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Torino away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; Torino away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Venezia or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Torino in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Venezia have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Venezia
2
Draws
1
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Torino?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Torino have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2025, when Torino 1-1 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Torino see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 74%, Torino 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 74% (Venezia) and 37% (Torino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Torino in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Torino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of Venezia's games and 42% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 74% of Venezia's matches and 37% of Torino's.
Do Venezia and Torino tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Torino in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Torino edge out Venezia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Venezia 0-1 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.25 xG and Torino 1.39 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Venezia fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Torino attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 2/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 30% | Draw 33% | Torino 37%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 68%, Torino 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Torino's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Torino winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.