Venezia 1-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Venezia at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Venezia welcome Salernitana to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Tuesday 26 October 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 outings — a 0.89 PPG return. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.78 goals per game and conceding 1.67 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 1W 1D 1L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 1.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 1W 1D 7L from 9 Serie A matches — 0.44 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.89 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana's form when playing away from home: 0W 0D 4L across 4 road games this term (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.89 PPG (Venezia) versus 0.44 (Salernitana). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Salernitana trading profile (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 56%; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 56% versus Salernitana 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 44% | Salernitana 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.55 xG and Salernitana 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.786 / defence 1.047 | Salernitana attack 0.637 / defence 1.470. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.479. Venezia's attack strength of 0.786 is below the league average — the 1.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.470 — this is suppressing Venezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 9 Venezia games / 9 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 50% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 24%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Salernitana 4.17. Venezia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Venezia as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Venezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.54 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 67% | Salernitana 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Oct 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 50% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Venezia 1.55 / Salernitana 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.786 / def 1.047 | Salernitana attack 0.637 / def 1.470 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.479 • Poisson stance: Venezia (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Salernitana xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Salernitana kick off?
Venezia vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 26 October 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Salernitana?
Venezia 1 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is Venezia vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Salernitana part of?
Venezia vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 50% chance of winning, Salernitana a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Venezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Venezia and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Salernitana in?
Venezia (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 0.78 / GA 1.67 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Salernitana (all comps): 1W-1D-7L in 9 | 0.44 PPG | GF 0.89 / GA 2.33 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Venezia's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Venezia Win
50%
1.98
26%
3.92
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.54
0.99
Salernitana xG
1.98
50%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
37%
2.68
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
5%
19.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.4 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Venezia and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Venezia and 0.99 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 2D 5L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.44 PPG from 9 outings (1W 1D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Venezia's home form reads 1W 1D 1L across 3 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 0.89 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.00 points per game from 3 outings (0W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Salernitana's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.89 scored and 2.33 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 games (0.89 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 7L in their last 9 (0.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Salernitana away?
Venezia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.33 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Salernitana runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Salernitana have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2022, when Salernitana 2-1 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 67%, Salernitana 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Venezia) and 67% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Salernitana in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Venezia's recent matches and 33% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Venezia's recent games and 67% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Salernitana tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Venezia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Venezia 1-2 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.55 xG and Salernitana 0.99 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Salernitana outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.79 / defence 1.05 against Salernitana attack 0.64 / defence 1.47, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 50% | Draw 26% | Salernitana 24%, with Venezia to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Salernitana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 44%, Salernitana 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Salernitana's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 0.89 PPG against 0.44. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.