Venezia 1-0 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Napoli (62%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Venezia face Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Napoli travel to Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo this season: 7W 0D 3L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Napoli — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Napoli's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Venezia's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Napoli, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Venezia.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Napoli have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Venezia trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Napoli trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 54% versus Napoli 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 57% | Napoli 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.93 xG and Napoli 2.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.713 / defence 1.503 | Napoli attack 1.067 / defence 0.905. League average goals — home 1.443 / away 1.260. Venezia's attack strength of 0.713 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Venezia games / 44 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 16% | Draw 21% | Napoli 62%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 6.25 | Draw 4.76 | Napoli 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Napoli (62%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Venezia 40% | Napoli 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 16% | Draw 21% | Napoli 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Venezia 0.93 / Napoli 2.02 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.713 / def 1.503 | Napoli attack 1.067 / def 0.905 | league avg home 1.443 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Napoli (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
2.02
Napoli xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Napoli kick off?
Venezia vs Napoli kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Napoli?
Venezia 1 - 0 Napoli.
Where is Venezia vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Napoli part of?
Venezia vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 16% chance of winning, Napoli a 62% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Venezia and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Napoli?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 0W | Draws 1 | Napoli 3W.
What form are Venezia and Napoli in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Napoli (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.71) and Napoli's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 2.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.7%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
16%
6.12
21%
4.70
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.95
2.02
Napoli xG
6.12
16%
Home win
4.70
21%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
13%
7.54
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
2%
46.16
25%
4.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 10.6 | 10.7 | 7.2 | 3.6 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 4.6 | 4.6 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Venezia and 2.02 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Napoli?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Venezia have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 24W 10D 10L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Napoli's form line: 26W 8D 10L from 44 games, 1.95 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Venezia on 1.86 PPG, Napoli on 1.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Venezia have posted 2.32 PPG from 22 outings (17W 0D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.86 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Napoli have gone 11W 4D 7L from 22 away games — 1.68 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.55 scored and 0.95 conceded. Venezia's scoring rate against Napoli's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Napoli in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Napoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Napoli in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 24W 10D 10L in their last 44 games (1.86 PPG), while Napoli have gone 26W 8D 10L in their last 44 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Napoli away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; Napoli away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Venezia or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Napoli in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Venezia's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Venezia
1
Draws
3
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Napoli?
From 5 meetings on record, Venezia have won 1, Napoli have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2026, when Venezia 1-0 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 41%, Napoli 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Venezia) and 41% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Napoli in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Venezia's recent matches and 41% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Venezia's recent games and 41% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Napoli tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Napoli in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Napoli 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Napoli 1-0 at Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.93 xG and Napoli 2.02 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Napoli landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.71 / defence 1.50 against Napoli attack 1.07 / defence 0.91, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 16% | Draw 21% | Napoli 62%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 57%, Napoli 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Napoli's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Venezia 1.86 PPG, Napoli 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Venezia win broke the near-deadlock. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.