Venezia 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo to take on Venezia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 11 December 2021, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Venezia have posted 2W 1D 4L at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventus stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventus have posted 4W 2D 2L from 8 away outings — 1.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Juventus — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Venezia register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, Juventus in 62% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Juventus in-play tendencies (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 50% versus Juventus 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 50% | Juventus 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.06 xG and Juventus 2.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.932 / defence 1.471 | Juventus attack 0.949 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.274 / away 1.452. Data: 16 Venezia games / 16 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 19% | Draw 21% | Juventus 60%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 5.26 | Draw 4.76 | Juventus 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Juventus (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.09 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 71% | Juventus 62% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 19% | Draw 21% | Juventus 60% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 57% | xG Venezia 1.06 / Juventus 2.03 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.932 / def 1.471 | Juventus attack 0.949 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.274 / away 1.452 • Poisson stance: Juventus (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
2.03
Juventus xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Juventus kick off?
Venezia vs Juventus kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Juventus?
Venezia 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Venezia vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Juventus part of?
Venezia vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 19% chance of winning, Juventus a 60% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Venezia and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Juventus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Juventus in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Juventus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Venezia's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against Juventus's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 2.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
19%
5.19
21%
4.74
60%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
0 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Venezia xG
Total xG
3.09
2.03
Juventus xG
5.19
19%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
1.68
60%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
13%
7.58
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
3%
39.38
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.2 | 5.3 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Venezia and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Venezia and 2.03 for Juventus, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Juventus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia's recent record stands at 4W 3D 9L from 16 games, a 0.94 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 5L across 16 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Juventus by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Venezia have managed 2W 1D 4L from 7 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Juventus's away record stands at 4W 1D 2L across 7 trips, a 1.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.38 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Juventus in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 4W 3D 9L in their last 16 games (0.94 PPG), while Juventus have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 1.00 PPG; Juventus away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Venezia or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Juventus in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Venezia's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Venezia
2
Draws
2
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Juventus?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 0, Juventus have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2025, when Venezia 2-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 71%, Juventus 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Venezia) and 43% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Juventus in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Juventus?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Venezia's games and 57% of Juventus's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Venezia's recent games and 43% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Juventus tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Juventus in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Venezia and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 17, as Venezia and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.06 xG and Juventus 2.03 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Juventus landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.93 / defence 1.47 against Juventus attack 0.95 / defence 0.90, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 19% | Draw 21% | Juventus 60%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 50%, Juventus 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Juventus's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Venezia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.