Venezia 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Venezia host Fiorentina at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 18 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Venezia — All Games: 1W 2D 4L from 7 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.71 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 0.71 goals per game and conceding 1.71 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have recorded 4W 0D 3L from 7 outings — 1.71 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.43 per game is modest, conceding 1.57 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina away from home this season: 3W 0D 1L from 4 away games — 2.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.25 exceeds their overall 1.71 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Fiorentina's 1.71 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Venezia's 0.71 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Venezia in-play tendencies (7 games): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (7 games): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Venezia 57% and Fiorentina 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 43% | Fiorentina 86%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 1.09 xG and Fiorentina 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.795 / defence 1.218 | Fiorentina attack 0.865 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.483. Venezia's attack strength of 0.795 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Venezia games / 7 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 48%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Fiorentina 2.08. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 57% | Fiorentina 75% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 26% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Venezia 1.09 / Fiorentina 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.795 / def 1.218 | Fiorentina attack 0.865 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Fiorentina xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Fiorentina kick off?
Venezia vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Venezia 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Venezia vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Fiorentina part of?
Venezia vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 26% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Venezia and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Venezia and Fiorentina in?
Venezia (all comps): 1W-2D-4L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 0.71 / GA 1.71 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-0D-3L in 7 | 1.71 PPG | GF 1.43 / GA 1.57 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Venezia's attack at 0.80x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
26%
3.79
25%
3.96
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.65
1.56
Fiorentina xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
21%
4.77
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
6%
18.05
16%
6.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 11.1 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Venezia and 1.56 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Venezia's recent record stands at 1W 2D 4L from 7 games, a 0.71 PPG return, with W-L-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 4W 0D 3L across 7 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fiorentina by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Venezia heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Venezia are averaging 0.71 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.43 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Fiorentina
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 1W 2D 4L in their last 7 games (0.71 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 4W 0D 3L in their last 7 (1.71 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Venezia and Fiorentina runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Venezia's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
1
Draws
1
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Fiorentina?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Fiorentina have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Venezia and Fiorentina?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Venezia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Venezia at 57%, Fiorentina at 86%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Venezia and 86% for Fiorentina. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Fiorentina?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Venezia's games and 86% of Fiorentina's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Venezia's matches and 86% of Fiorentina's.
Do Venezia and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 1.09 xG and Fiorentina 1.56 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.80 / defence 1.22 against Fiorentina attack 0.86 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 26% | Draw 25% | Fiorentina 48%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual Venezia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 43%, Fiorentina 86%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Fiorentina's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.71. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Fiorentina managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.