Venezia 4-3 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Venezia vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 36 as Venezia welcome Bologna to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 May 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have gone 0W 0D 10L from 10 outings — a 0.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bologna — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Bologna are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Venezia, 0 for Bologna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 1–0 with Venezia winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 60% versus Bologna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 51% | Bologna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.88 xG and Bologna 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.737 / defence 1.591 | Bologna attack 0.619 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.101 / away 1.309. Venezia's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Venezia games / 35 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 24% | Draw 30% | Bologna 45%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 2.22. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Venezia 70% | Bologna 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 24% | Draw 30% | Bologna 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Venezia 0.88 / Bologna 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.737 / def 1.591 | Bologna attack 0.619 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.101 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Bologna xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Bologna kick off?
Venezia vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What was the final score in Venezia vs Bologna?
Venezia 4 - 3 Bologna.
Where is Venezia vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Bologna part of?
Venezia vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 24% chance of winning, Bologna a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Venezia and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Venezia 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Venezia and Bologna in?
Venezia (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.74) and Bologna's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.1%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
24%
4.08
30%
3.29
45%
2.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.17
1.29
Bologna xG
4.08
24%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.22
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
42%
2.41
Win to Nil
7%
14.84
19%
5.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 14.8 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Venezia and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Venezia and 1.29 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia come into this having played 35 games, going 5W 7D 23L for 0.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (11W 10D 14L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Venezia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Venezia's home form reads 2W 4D 11L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.59 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 0.88 points per game from 17 outings (3W 6D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.11 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Bologna in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 5W 7D 23L in their last 35 games (0.63 PPG), while Bologna have gone 11W 10D 14L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 0.59 PPG; Bologna away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Venezia or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Bologna in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Bologna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Venezia 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 71%, Bologna 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Venezia) and 53% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Bologna in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Venezia's games and 53% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Venezia vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Venezia's recent games and 53% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Bologna tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Bologna in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Venezia defy the odds to beat Bologna 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Venezia beat Bologna 4-3 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Venezia 0.88 xG and Bologna 1.29 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Venezia beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 1.29 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Venezia attack 0.74 / defence 1.59 against Bologna attack 0.62 / defence 1.08, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Venezia 24% | Draw 30% | Bologna 45%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Venezia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Venezia 51%, Bologna 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Venezia's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Venezia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Venezia (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.