Venezia vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Venezia vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 13 as Venezia welcome Bologna to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's form when playing at home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Venezia are significantly better at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo than their overall form suggests.
Bologna — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Venezia 1.00 PPG, Bologna 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Venezia, 2 for Bologna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Venezia in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Venezia 53% versus Bologna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Venezia 56% | Bologna 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Venezia 0.89 xG and Bologna 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Venezia attack 0.720 / defence 1.303 | Bologna attack 0.912 / defence 0.859. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.240. Venezia's attack strength of 0.720 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Venezia games / 45 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Venezia 23% | Draw 26% | Bologna 51%. Fair-value odds: Venezia 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 1.96. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Venezia 30% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Venezia vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Pierluigi Penzo • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Venezia 23% | Draw 26% | Bologna 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Venezia 0.89 / Bologna 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Venezia attack 0.720 / def 1.303 | Bologna attack 0.912 / def 0.859 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Bologna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Venezia xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Bologna xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Venezia vs Bologna kick off?
Venezia vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Where is Venezia vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
What competition is Venezia vs Bologna part of?
Venezia vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Venezia vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Venezia a 23% chance of winning, Bologna a 51% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Venezia vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Venezia and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Venezia vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Venezia 2W | Draws 0 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Venezia and Bologna in?
Venezia (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Venezia's attack rating (0.72) and Bologna's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Venezia's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
23%
4.38
26%
3.78
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Venezia xG
Total xG
2.37
1.47
Bologna xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
23%
4.37
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
5%
19.12
21%
4.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.8 | 10.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.5 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Venezia vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Venezia and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Venezia and 1.47 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Venezia vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Venezia come into this having played 45 games, going 25W 10D 10L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.36 PPG from 45 outings (17W 10D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Venezia's home form reads 17W 0D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.32 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.89 PPG overall — Venezia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (11W 4D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Venezia are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.22 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Venezia
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Venezia and Bologna in coming into this match?
Venezia have gone 25W 10D 10L in their last 45 games (1.89 PPG), while Bologna have gone 17W 10D 18L in their last 45 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Venezia at home or Bologna away?
Venezia's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Venezia at home: 2.32 PPG; Bologna away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Venezia or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Venezia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Bologna in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Venezia's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Venezia
0
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Venezia and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Venezia have won 2, Bologna have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Venezia and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Venezia 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Venezia 36%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Venezia) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Venezia keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Venezia home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Venezia play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Venezia's recent matches and 54% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Venezia vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Venezia's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Venezia and Bologna tend to score early?
Venezia have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bologna in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.