Udinese 0-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Udinese at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dacia Arena plays host to Udinese versus Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 20 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Udinese have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese at Dacia Arena this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.50 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Udinese register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Salernitana in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Udinese, 1 for Salernitana and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 May 2022, ended 4–0 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 62% versus Salernitana 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 56% | Salernitana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.67 xG and Salernitana 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.107 / defence 1.046 | Salernitana attack 0.894 / defence 1.040. League average goals — home 1.447 / away 1.417. Data: 39 Udinese games / 39 Salernitana games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Udinese 45% | Draw 24% | Salernitana 31%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.22 | Draw 4.17 | Salernitana 3.23. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.32) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 80% | Salernitana 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 45% | Draw 24% | Salernitana 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Udinese 1.67 / Salernitana 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.107 / def 1.046 | Salernitana attack 0.894 / def 1.040 | league avg home 1.447 / away 1.417 • Poisson stance: Udinese (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Salernitana xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Salernitana kick off?
Udinese vs Salernitana kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 20 August 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Udinese 0 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Udinese vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs Salernitana part of?
Udinese vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 45% chance of winning, Salernitana a 31% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Udinese and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Salernitana?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 0 | Salernitana 1W.
What form are Udinese and Salernitana in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Salernitana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Udinese's attack at 1.11x the league average against Salernitana's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.89x) against Udinese's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
45%
2.20
24%
4.17
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.99
1.32
Salernitana xG
2.20
45%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
19%
5.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.27
6%
17.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.1 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Udinese and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Udinese and 1.32 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 11W 14D 14L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Salernitana's form line: 7W 10D 22L from 39 games, 0.79 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Udinese are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Salernitana.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.32 PPG from 19 outings (6W 7D 6L).
On the road, Salernitana have gone 4W 4D 11L from 19 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Udinese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Udinese are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.85 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 11W 14D 14L in their last 39 games (1.21 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 7W 10D 22L in their last 39 (0.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Salernitana away?
Udinese's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.32 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 22 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Udinese have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
2
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Salernitana have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Udinese 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Salernitana?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 68%, Salernitana 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Udinese) and 58% (Salernitana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Udinese's games and 58% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Udinese's matches and 58% of Salernitana's.
Do Udinese and Salernitana tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Salernitana finished level at 0-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.67 xG and Salernitana 1.32 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Salernitana landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.11 / defence 1.05 against Salernitana attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 45% | Draw 24% | Salernitana 31%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 56%, Salernitana 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Udinese arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.