Udinese 0-0 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Udinese vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Udinese host Monza at Bluenergy Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 3 February 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Udinese — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.20 conceded. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Udinese at Bluenergy Stadium this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Monza have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monza have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Udinese at 0.70 PPG versus Monza's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Udinese have won 1, Monza 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Monza in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 55% versus Monza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 50% | Monza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.69 xG and Monza 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 1.084 / defence 1.306 | Monza attack 0.874 / defence 1.103. League average goals — home 1.410 / away 1.090. Data: 60 Udinese games / 60 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 26% | Monza 27%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Monza 3.70. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 70% | Monza 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 47% | Draw 26% | Monza 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Udinese 1.69 / Monza 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 1.084 / def 1.306 | Monza attack 0.874 / def 1.103 | league avg home 1.410 / away 1.090 • Poisson stance: Udinese (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Monza xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Monza kick off?
Udinese vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Monza?
Udinese 0 - 0 Monza.
Where is Udinese vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Monza part of?
Udinese vs Monza is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 47% chance of winning, Monza a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Udinese and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
Record (3 meetings): Udinese 1W | Draws 2 | Monza 0W.
What form are Udinese and Monza in?
Udinese (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (1.08) and Monza's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.69 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.88
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.93
1.24
Monza xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.41
5%
19.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Udinese and 1.24 for Monza, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 60 games, going 13W 25D 22L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.33 PPG from 60 outings (21W 17D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.07 PPG, Monza on 1.33. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 7W 15D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.20 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.15 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Monza in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 25D 22L in their last 60 games (1.07 PPG), while Monza have gone 21W 17D 22L in their last 60 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.20 PPG; Monza away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Monza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Monza specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Udinese
3
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, Monza have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2025, when Udinese 1-2 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Monza?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 63%, Monza 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Udinese) and 47% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Udinese's recent matches and 43% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Udinese's recent games and 47% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Monza tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Monza in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Udinese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Monza finished level at 0-0 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.69 xG and Monza 1.24 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Udinese fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Monza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 1.08 / defence 1.31 against Monza attack 0.87 / defence 1.10, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 47% | Draw 26% | Monza 27%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 50%, Monza 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Monza's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.07 PPG, Monza 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.