Udinese 1-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees Lecce travel to Bluenergy Stadium to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Monday 23 October 2023, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Udinese have posted 2W 4D 4L at Bluenergy Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Udinese are significantly better at Bluenergy Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Lecce — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Lecce's 1.50 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Udinese's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Udinese, 1 for Lecce and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2023, ended 0–1 with Lecce winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Udinese in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Lecce in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 50% versus Lecce 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 48% | Lecce 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.02 xG and Lecce 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.800 / defence 1.176 | Lecce attack 0.966 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.155. Data: 46 Udinese games / 46 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 28% | Draw 29% | Lecce 42%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Lecce 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 30% | Lecce 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 23 Oct 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 28% | Draw 29% | Lecce 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG Udinese 1.02 / Lecce 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.800 / def 1.176 | Lecce attack 0.966 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.155 • Poisson stance: Lecce (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Lecce xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Lecce kick off?
Udinese vs Lecce kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 23 October 2023 at Bluenergy Stadium.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Lecce?
Udinese 1 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Udinese vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium.
What competition is Udinese vs Lecce part of?
Udinese vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 28% chance of winning, Lecce a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Udinese and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lecce?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Udinese and Lecce in?
Udinese (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Lecce (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Udinese's attack rating (0.80) and Lecce's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.4%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
28%
3.54
29%
3.41
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.33
1.31
Lecce xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
13.15
15%
6.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Udinese and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Udinese and 1.31 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Udinese have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 11W 18D 17L record — D-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce's form line: 11W 15D 20L from 46 games, 1.04 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.11 PPG, Lecce on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Udinese have posted 1.27 PPG from 22 outings (6W 10D 6L).
On the road, Lecce have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.91 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Lecce in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 11W 18D 17L in their last 46 games (1.11 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 15D 20L in their last 46 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Lecce away?
Udinese's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.27 PPG; Lecce away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Lecce runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Udinese
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Lecce?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 4, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Lecce?
Udinese have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 59%, Lecce 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Udinese) and 27% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Lecce in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Udinese's recent matches and 41% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Udinese's recent games and 27% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Lecce tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Lecce in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Udinese and Lecce share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese and Lecce finished level at 1-1 at Bluenergy Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.02 xG and Lecce 1.31 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.80 / defence 1.18 against Lecce attack 0.97 / defence 0.91, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 28% | Draw 29% | Lecce 42%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 48%, Lecce 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.11 PPG, Lecce 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.