Udinese 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Udinese vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Genoa travel to Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli to take on Udinese. The game is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Udinese have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Udinese 1.10 PPG, Genoa 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Genoa, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Udinese.
The last 6 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2025, ended 0–1 with Genoa winning.
It is worth noting that Genoa have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 53% versus Genoa 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 49% | Genoa 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.33 xG and Genoa 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.896 / defence 1.263 | Genoa attack 1.174 / defence 1.193. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.114. Data: 51 Udinese games / 51 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 44%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.33 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.33 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Udinese 50% | Genoa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Udinese 1.33 / Genoa 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.896 / def 1.263 | Genoa attack 1.174 / def 1.193 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Genoa (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Genoa xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs Genoa kick off?
Udinese vs Genoa kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What was the final score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Udinese 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Udinese vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli.
What competition is Udinese vs Genoa part of?
Udinese vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 30% chance of winning, Genoa a 44% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Udinese and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
Record (6 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 3 | Genoa 3W.
What form are Udinese and Genoa in?
Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Genoa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Udinese's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.33. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 2-1 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
30%
3.31
26%
3.92
44%
2.26
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.98
1.65
Genoa xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.26
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
19%
5.21
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
6%
17.28
12%
8.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.4 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Udinese and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Udinese and 1.65 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Udinese come into this having played 51 games, going 17W 11D 23L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.06 PPG from 51 outings (12W 18D 21L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Udinese on 1.22 PPG, Genoa on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Udinese's home form reads 9W 5D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Udinese are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.98 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and Genoa in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 17W 11D 23L in their last 51 games (1.22 PPG), while Genoa have gone 12W 18D 21L in their last 51 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or Genoa away?
Udinese's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.28 PPG; Genoa away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Udinese and Genoa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 20 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Udinese's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Udinese
3
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Udinese have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 20 March 2026, when Genoa 0-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 44%, Genoa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Udinese) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Udinese keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Udinese have failed to score in 32% of games; Genoa in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Udinese's recent matches and 56% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Udinese vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Udinese's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and Genoa tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Genoa in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Udinese 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Udinese 1-2 at Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.33 xG and Genoa 1.65 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Genoa attack 1.17 / defence 1.19, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 30% | Draw 26% | Genoa 44%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 49%, Genoa 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Udinese 1.22 PPG, Genoa 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.