Udinese 4-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Udinese take on AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 5 as Udinese welcome AS Roma to Dacia Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Udinese stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Dacia Arena, Udinese have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Udinese) versus 1.60 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Udinese, 1 for AS Roma and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Udinese in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AS Roma in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Udinese 60% versus AS Roma 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Udinese 55% | AS Roma 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Udinese 1.02 xG and AS Roma 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Udinese attack 0.932 / defence 0.888 | AS Roma attack 1.093 / defence 0.803. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.065. Data: 42 Udinese games / 42 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 38% | AS Roma 31%. Fair-value odds: Udinese 3.33 | Draw 2.63 | AS Roma 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Udinese 70% | AS Roma 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Udinese vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Dacia Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Udinese 30% | Draw 38% | AS Roma 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 45% | xG Udinese 1.02 / AS Roma 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Udinese attack 0.932 / def 0.888 | AS Roma attack 1.093 / def 0.803 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Udinese xG
Expected Goals
1.03
AS Roma xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Udinese vs AS Roma kick off?
Udinese vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Dacia Arena.
What was the final score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Udinese 4 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Udinese vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Dacia Arena.
What competition is Udinese vs AS Roma part of?
Udinese vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Udinese a 30% chance of winning, AS Roma a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Udinese and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Udinese vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
Record (2 meetings): Udinese 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in?
Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Udinese's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Udinese's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
30%
3.28
38%
2.60
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Udinese xG
Total xG
2.06
1.03
AS Roma xG
3.28
30%
Home win
2.60
38%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
36%
2.81
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
11%
9.24
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Udinese and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Udinese and 1.03 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Udinese vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Udinese come into this having played 42 games, going 13W 15D 14L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.74 PPG from 42 outings (21W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Udinese — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Udinese's home form reads 7W 8D 6L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (9W 4D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Udinese are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.55 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Udinese
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Udinese and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Udinese have gone 13W 15D 14L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 21W 10D 11L in their last 42 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Udinese at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Udinese at home: 1.38 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Udinese or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Udinese's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Udinese
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Udinese and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Udinese have won 2, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Udinese and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Udinese and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Udinese 62%, AS Roma 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Udinese) and 52% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Udinese home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Udinese play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Udinese's games and 57% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Udinese vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Udinese's recent games and 52% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Udinese and AS Roma tend to score early?
Udinese have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 4-0 hammering of AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat AS Roma 4-0 at Dacia Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Udinese 1.02 xG and AS Roma 1.03 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Udinese beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AS Roma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Udinese attack 0.93 / defence 0.89 against AS Roma attack 1.09 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Udinese 30% | Draw 38% | AS Roma 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Udinese 55%, AS Roma 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Udinese's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.29. Form was overturned, with Udinese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.