Torino vs Udinese – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Udinese at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Torino vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico di Torino to take on Torino. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026, 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Torino stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Torino have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Torino have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Olimpico di Torino — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Torino are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico di Torino than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Torino 1.20 PPG, Udinese 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for Torino, 3 for Udinese and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 0–2 with Udinese winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Torino trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Torino 52% versus Udinese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Torino 65% | Udinese 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Torino 1.45 xG and Udinese 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Torino attack 1.119 / defence 1.119 | Udinese attack 1.216 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Udinese have an above-average attack strength of 1.216 — the away xG of 1.68 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Torino games / 40 Udinese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Torino 33% | Draw 24% | Udinese 43%. Fair-value odds: Torino 3.03 | Draw 4.17 | Udinese 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.45 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Udinese are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Udinese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Torino 70% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Torino vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico di Torino • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Torino 33% | Draw 24% | Udinese 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 62% | xG Torino 1.45 / Udinese 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Torino attack 1.119 / def 1.119 | Udinese attack 1.216 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Udinese (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Torino xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Udinese xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Torino vs Udinese kick off?
Torino vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
Where is Torino vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico di Torino.
What competition is Torino vs Udinese part of?
Torino vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Torino vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Torino a 33% chance of winning, Udinese a 43% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Torino vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Torino and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Torino vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
Record (10 meetings): Torino 5W | Draws 2 | Udinese 3W.
What form are Torino and Udinese in?
Torino (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Torino's attack rating (1.12) and Udinese's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Torino's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
33%
2.99
24%
4.24
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Torino xG
Total xG
3.13
1.68
Udinese xG
2.99
33%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
6%
16.04
10%
9.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.3 | 6.1 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.6 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Torino vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Torino and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Torino and 1.68 for Udinese, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Torino vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, Torino have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 12W 9D 19L record — W-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Torino, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 15W 9D 16L from 40 games, 1.35 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Torino on 1.12 PPG, Udinese on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Torino have posted 1.40 PPG from 20 outings (8W 4D 8L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 9W 3D 8L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Torino are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Torino
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Torino and Udinese in coming into this match?
Torino have gone 12W 9D 19L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 9D 16L in their last 40 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Torino at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Torino at home: 1.40 PPG; Udinese away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Torino or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Torino have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Udinese in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Udinese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Torino's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Torino
2
Draws
3
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Torino and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Torino have won 5, Udinese have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Torino and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Udinese 2-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Torino and Udinese?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Torino 65%, Udinese 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Torino and 55% for Udinese. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Torino home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Torino play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Torino's games and 55% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Torino vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Torino's matches and 55% of Udinese's.
Do Torino and Udinese tend to score early?
Torino have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Udinese in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.