Spezia 2-1 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Spezia at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Spezia vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Spezia host Sampdoria at Stadio Alberto Picco in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 September 2022 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Spezia — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Spezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Spezia have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Alberto Picco — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sampdoria stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sampdoria have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Spezia) versus 0.80 (Sampdoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Spezia, 1 for Sampdoria and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2022, ended 1–0 with Spezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Spezia in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Sampdoria in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Spezia 54% versus Sampdoria 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Spezia 59% | Sampdoria 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Spezia 1.88 xG and Sampdoria 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Spezia attack 1.054 / defence 1.211 | Sampdoria attack 0.763 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.100. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Spezia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Spezia games / 44 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Spezia 55% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 18%. Fair-value odds: Spezia 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Sampdoria 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Spezia (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Spezia 50% | Sampdoria 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Spezia vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Alberto Picco • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Sep 2022, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Spezia 55% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG Spezia 1.88 / Sampdoria 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Spezia attack 1.054 / def 1.211 | Sampdoria attack 0.763 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Spezia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Spezia xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Sampdoria xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Spezia vs Sampdoria kick off?
Spezia vs Sampdoria kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 17 September 2022 at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What was the final score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Spezia 2 - 1 Sampdoria.
Where is Spezia vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
What competition is Spezia vs Sampdoria part of?
Spezia vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Spezia a 55% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Spezia and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Spezia vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Record (2 meetings): Spezia 1W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 1W.
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in?
Spezia (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Sampdoria (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Spezia's attack at 1.05x the league average against Sampdoria's defence at 1.33x — combine the two and it projects 1.88 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sampdoria's attack versus Spezia's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
55%
1.82
27%
3.64
18%
5.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Spezia xG
Total xG
2.90
1.02
Sampdoria xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.71
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
36%
2.76
15%
6.56
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
3%
37.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Spezia and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Spezia and 1.02 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Spezia vs Sampdoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Spezia have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 11W 8D 25L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Spezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sampdoria's form line: 10W 8D 26L from 44 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sampdoria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Spezia on 0.93 PPG, Sampdoria on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Spezia have posted 1.10 PPG from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 4W 3D 14L from 21 away games — 0.71 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Spezia are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.11 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Spezia
Early Season
Sampdoria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Spezia and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Spezia have gone 11W 8D 25L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 10W 8D 26L in their last 44 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Spezia at home or Sampdoria away?
Spezia's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Spezia at home: 1.10 PPG; Sampdoria away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Spezia's record when hosting Sampdoria specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Spezia
3
Draws
3
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Spezia and Sampdoria?
From 10 meetings on record, Spezia have won 4, Sampdoria have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Spezia and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Sampdoria 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Spezia and Sampdoria?
Spezia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Spezia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Spezia 62%, Sampdoria 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Spezia) and 52% (Sampdoria).
On the defensive side: Sampdoria in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Spezia home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Spezia play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Spezia's recent matches and 38% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Spezia vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Spezia's recent games and 52% of Sampdoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Spezia and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Spezia have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Spezia edge out Sampdoria 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Sampdoria 2-1 at Stadio Alberto Picco, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Spezia 1.88 xG and Sampdoria 1.02 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Spezia attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against Sampdoria attack 0.76 / defence 1.33, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Spezia 55% | Draw 27% | Sampdoria 18%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Spezia 59%, Sampdoria 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Spezia's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Sampdoria's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Spezia 0.93 PPG, Sampdoria 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Spezia win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.