Sassuolo 1-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sassuolo at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sassuolo vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sassuolo and Salernitana meet at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sassuolo's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana (all games): 0W 1D 4L across 5 Serie A outings this term — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form favours the hosts. Sassuolo's 0.80 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading
Sassuolo half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they fail to score in 40% of games.
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games; Over 3.5 in 80%; they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sassuolo 60% versus Salernitana 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 60% | Salernitana 80%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.22 xG and Salernitana 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 0.618 / defence 0.923 | Salernitana attack 0.741 / defence 1.608. League average goals — home 1.228 / away 1.645. Sassuolo's attack strength of 0.618 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.608 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Sassuolo games / 5 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 38% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 34%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 2.63 | Draw 3.57 | Salernitana 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sassuolo 60% | Salernitana 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 38% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Sassuolo 1.22 / Salernitana 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 0.618 / def 0.923 | Salernitana attack 0.741 / def 1.608 | league avg home 1.228 / away 1.645 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Salernitana xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Salernitana kick off?
Sassuolo vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 September 2021 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Sassuolo 1 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Sassuolo vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Salernitana part of?
Sassuolo vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 38% chance of winning, Salernitana a 34% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sassuolo and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sassuolo and Salernitana in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Salernitana (all comps): 0W-1D-4L in 5 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sassuolo's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.61x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.74x) against Sassuolo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
38%
2.61
28%
3.57
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
2.35
1.13
Salernitana xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.05
10%
10.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.8 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.13 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sassuolo come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 1D 3L for 0.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.20 PPG from 5 outings (0W 1D 4L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sassuolo are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.80 scored and 2.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Early Season
Salernitana
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 games (0.80 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 0W 1D 4L in their last 5 (0.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sassuolo have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sassuolo won 5-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sassuolo have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Sassuolo
3
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Salernitana?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 4, Salernitana have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Salernitana 1-2 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Salernitana?
Sassuolo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sassuolo 60%, Salernitana 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sassuolo and 80% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 80% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sassuolo have failed to score in 40% of games; Salernitana in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sassuolo's recent matches and 40% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sassuolo vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sassuolo's matches and 80% of Salernitana's.
Do Sassuolo and Salernitana tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sassuolo edge out Salernitana 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sassuolo beat Salernitana 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.22 xG and Salernitana 1.13 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Salernitana landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 0.62 / defence 0.92 against Salernitana attack 0.74 / defence 1.61, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 38% | Draw 28% | Salernitana 34%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 60%, Salernitana 80%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.20. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sassuolo conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.