Sassuolo 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sassuolo vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sassuolo host Inter at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 8 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Sassuolo have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Sassuolo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sassuolo at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Inter stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inter's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sassuolo at 1.50 PPG versus Inter's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sassuolo register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Inter in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Sassuolo, 1 for Inter and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 2–0 with Sassuolo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Sassuolo in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Inter in-play and half-time data (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sassuolo 70% and Inter 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sassuolo 74% | Inter 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sassuolo 1.99 xG and Inter 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sassuolo attack 1.201 / defence 0.913 | Inter attack 1.201 / defence 1.208. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.131. Inter bring a strong defensive rating of 1.208 — this is suppressing Sassuolo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.201 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 46 Sassuolo games / 46 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sassuolo 53% | Draw 25% | Inter 22%. Fair-value odds: Sassuolo 1.89 | Draw 4.00 | Inter 4.55. Sassuolo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.23. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.23 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.99 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sassuolo are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.23 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sassuolo 60% | Inter 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sassuolo vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sassuolo 53% | Draw 25% | Inter 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 63% | xG Sassuolo 1.99 / Inter 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sassuolo attack 1.201 / def 0.913 | Inter attack 1.201 / def 1.208 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Sassuolo xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Inter xG
63%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sassuolo vs Inter kick off?
Sassuolo vs Inter kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 October 2022 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Sassuolo vs Inter?
Sassuolo 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Sassuolo vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Sassuolo vs Inter part of?
Sassuolo vs Inter is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Sassuolo a 53% chance of winning, Inter a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Sassuolo and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Sassuolo vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Inter?
Record (2 meetings): Sassuolo 1W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Sassuolo and Inter in?
Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Inter (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sassuolo's attack rating (1.20) and Inter's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Sassuolo's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.03
22%
4.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Sassuolo xG
Total xG
3.23
1.24
Inter xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.54
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
15%
6.50
3%
33.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sassuolo vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Sassuolo and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Sassuolo and 1.24 for Inter, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Sassuolo vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sassuolo's recent record stands at 16W 14D 16L from 46 games, a 1.35 PPG return, with D-D-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sassuolo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 29W 9D 8L across 46 games — 2.09 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sassuolo heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sassuolo have managed 8W 7D 8L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 12W 6D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sassuolo are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.13 scored and 0.98 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Inter in 61%.
Defensively: Inter in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sassuolo
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sassuolo and Inter in coming into this match?
Sassuolo have gone 16W 14D 16L in their last 46 games (1.35 PPG), while Inter have gone 29W 9D 8L in their last 46 (2.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sassuolo at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sassuolo at home: 1.35 PPG; Inter away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Sassuolo or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sassuolo have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Inter in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sassuolo and Inter runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Inter go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Feb 2026, when Inter won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sassuolo's record when hosting Inter specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Sassuolo
0
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sassuolo and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Sassuolo have won 3, Inter have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sassuolo and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Sassuolo 0-5 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Sassuolo and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sassuolo at 65%, Inter at 70%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Sassuolo and 65% for Inter. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sassuolo home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sassuolo play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Sassuolo's games and 70% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sassuolo vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Sassuolo's matches and 65% of Inter's.
Do Sassuolo and Inter tend to score early?
Sassuolo have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Inter in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Inter defy the odds to beat Sassuolo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Sassuolo 1-2 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sassuolo 1.99 xG and Inter 1.24 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Sassuolo fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sassuolo attack 1.20 / defence 0.91 against Inter attack 1.20 / defence 1.21, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sassuolo 53% | Draw 25% | Inter 22%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Inter win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sassuolo 74%, Inter 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sassuolo's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.35. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.