Salernitana 0-4 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salernitana vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Arechi plays host to Salernitana versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salernitana have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Arechi, Salernitana have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Udinese (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Salernitana, 0 for Udinese and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Salernitana winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 54% versus Udinese 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salernitana 57% | Udinese 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.19 xG and Udinese 1.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.864 / defence 1.307 | Udinese attack 0.984 / defence 1.237. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.370. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.237 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Salernitana games / 37 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 25% | Draw 25% | Udinese 50%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Udinese 2.00. Udinese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.95 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Salernitana 70% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Sunday 22 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 25% | Draw 25% | Udinese 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Salernitana 1.19 / Udinese 1.76 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.864 / def 1.307 | Udinese attack 0.984 / def 1.237 | league avg home 1.109 / away 1.370 • Poisson stance: Udinese (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.76
Udinese xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Udinese kick off?
Salernitana vs Udinese kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 22 May 2022 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Udinese?
Salernitana 0 - 4 Udinese.
Where is Salernitana vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Udinese part of?
Salernitana vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 25% chance of winning, Udinese a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Salernitana and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Salernitana 1W | Draws 0 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Salernitana and Udinese in?
Salernitana (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Udinese (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Salernitana's attack at 0.86x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.98x) against Salernitana's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.76.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
25%
4.00
25%
4.04
50%
1.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Salernitana xG
Total xG
2.95
1.76
Udinese xG
4.00
25%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.99
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
17%
5.82
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
4%
23.30
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.76 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salernitana's recent record stands at 7W 10D 20L from 37 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 10W 14D 13L across 37 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.84 PPG for Salernitana against 1.19 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Salernitana have managed 3W 6D 9L from 18 games — 0.83 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 4W 7D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Salernitana are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.54 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Udinese in 62%.
Last 37 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Udinese in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 7W 10D 20L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while Udinese have gone 10W 14D 13L in their last 37 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Udinese away?
Udinese's away record (1.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.83 PPG; Udinese away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 0-4 on 22 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salernitana have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Salernitana
3
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Udinese?
From 6 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 2, Udinese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Udinese 1-1 Salernitana.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Udinese?
Salernitana have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 50%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Salernitana) and 56% (Udinese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 44% of games; Udinese in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Salernitana's recent matches and 56% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Salernitana's matches and 56% of Udinese's.
Do Salernitana and Udinese tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Udinese in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Udinese run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Udinese beat Salernitana 0-4 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.19 xG and Udinese 1.76 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Udinese outscored their 1.76 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.86 / defence 1.31 against Udinese attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 25% | Draw 25% | Udinese 50%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 57%, Udinese 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Udinese's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salernitana 0.84 PPG, Udinese 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Salernitana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.