Salernitana 1-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salernitana vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Arechi to take on Salernitana. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 October 2021, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salernitana stand at 0W 1D 5L from 6 Serie A matches — 0.17 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Salernitana have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Salernitana's home record at Stadio Arechi: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Serie A appearances (0.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game.
Genoa — All Games: 1W 2D 3L from 6 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.83 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 2.50. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 83% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 1L across 3 road games this term (1.33 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.33 exceeds their overall 0.83 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Genoa's 0.83 PPG return is 0.66 points per game ahead of Salernitana's 0.17 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Salernitana trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 67% of games.
Genoa trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 67%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salernitana 33% versus Genoa 83%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Salernitana 67% | Genoa 100%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salernitana 1.28 xG and Genoa 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salernitana attack 0.726 / defence 1.306 | Genoa attack 0.908 / defence 1.432. League average goals — home 1.235 / away 1.571. Salernitana's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Genoa bring a strong defensive rating of 1.432 — this is suppressing Salernitana's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 6 Salernitana games / 6 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salernitana 26% | Draw 23% | Genoa 51%. Fair-value odds: Salernitana 3.85 | Draw 4.35 | Genoa 1.96. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.15. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.15 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.28 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.15 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Salernitana 33% | Genoa 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salernitana vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Arechi • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salernitana 26% | Draw 23% | Genoa 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 61% | xG Salernitana 1.28 / Genoa 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: Salernitana attack 0.726 / def 1.306 | Genoa attack 0.908 / def 1.432 | league avg home 1.235 / away 1.571 • Poisson stance: Genoa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Salernitana xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Genoa xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salernitana vs Genoa kick off?
Salernitana vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Stadio Arechi.
What was the final score in Salernitana vs Genoa?
Salernitana 1 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Salernitana vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Arechi.
What competition is Salernitana vs Genoa part of?
Salernitana vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Salernitana a 26% chance of winning, Genoa a 51% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Salernitana and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Salernitana vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Genoa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salernitana and Genoa in?
Salernitana (all comps): 0W-1D-5L in 6 | 0.17 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Genoa (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Salernitana's attack rating (0.73) and Genoa's defence rating (1.43), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Salernitana's defence, projects 1.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 6/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
26%
3.79
23%
4.42
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Salernitana xG
Total xG
3.15
1.86
Genoa xG
3.79
26%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.57
Clean Sheet
16%
6.44
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
4%
24.41
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 6.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salernitana vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Salernitana and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Salernitana and 1.86 for Genoa, a combined total of 3.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Salernitana vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salernitana come into this having played 6 games, going 0W 1D 5L for 0.17 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Salernitana, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-W-L-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Genoa carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.66 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Salernitana's home form reads 0W 1D 2L across 3 games on their own ground, a 0.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.33 points per game from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's actually stronger than their 0.83 PPG overall record — Genoa travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salernitana are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.67 scored and 2.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa in 83%.
Last 6 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salernitana
Early Season
Genoa
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salernitana and Genoa in coming into this match?
Salernitana have gone 0W 1D 5L in their last 6 games (0.17 PPG), while Genoa have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salernitana at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salernitana at home: 0.33 PPG; Genoa away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salernitana and Genoa runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Salernitana's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Salernitana
1
Draws
2
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salernitana and Genoa?
From 4 meetings on record, Salernitana have won 1, Genoa have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Salernitana and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 21 January 2024, when Salernitana 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Salernitana and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salernitana see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salernitana 33%, Genoa 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Salernitana and 100% for Genoa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 100% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana have failed to score in 67% of games; Genoa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salernitana home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salernitana play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Salernitana's recent matches and 67% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salernitana vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Salernitana's matches and 100% of Genoa's.
Do Salernitana and Genoa tend to score early?
Salernitana have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, Genoa in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salernitana defy the odds to beat Genoa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salernitana beat Genoa 1-0 at Stadio Arechi, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salernitana 1.28 xG and Genoa 1.86 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Genoa landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salernitana attack 0.73 / defence 1.31 against Genoa attack 0.91 / defence 1.43, drawn from 6/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salernitana 26% | Draw 23% | Genoa 51%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Salernitana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 83% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salernitana 67%, Genoa 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salernitana's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Genoa's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 83% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Genoa arrived the stronger side — 0.83 PPG against 0.17. Form was overturned, with Salernitana winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.