Pisa 1-2 AC Milan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Milan at 73% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs AC Milan encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and AC Milan meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Friday 13 February 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Pisa (all games): 0W 5D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's home record at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AC Milan have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Milan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AC Milan have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. AC Milan are 1.70 PPG clear of Pisa in recent Serie A fixtures (2.20 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Pisa, 0 for AC Milan and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Pisa — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
AC Milan — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 51% versus AC Milan 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 49% | AC Milan 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 0.48 xG and AC Milan 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.541 / defence 1.222 | AC Milan attack 1.358 / defence 0.719. League average goals — home 1.242 / away 1.205. Pisa's attack strength of 0.541 is below the league average — the 0.48 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AC Milan's defence strength of 0.719 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. AC Milan have an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Pisa games / 61 AC Milan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 8% | Draw 19% | AC Milan 73%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 12.50 | Draw 5.26 | AC Milan 1.37. The model has a clear lean to AC Milan (73%) — a 65pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Pisa's lower xG of 0.48 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Milan at 73% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 20% | AC Milan 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs AC Milan | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 8% | Draw 19% | AC Milan 73% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 33% | xG Pisa 0.48 / AC Milan 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.541 / def 1.222 | AC Milan attack 1.358 / def 0.719 | league avg home 1.242 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: AC Milan (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.48
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
2.00
AC Milan xG
33%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs AC Milan kick off?
Pisa vs AC Milan kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs AC Milan?
Pisa 1 - 2 AC Milan.
Where is Pisa vs AC Milan being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs AC Milan part of?
Pisa vs AC Milan is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs AC Milan?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 8% chance of winning, AC Milan a 73% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making AC Milan the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs AC Milan?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Pisa and AC Milan will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs AC Milan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and AC Milan?
Record (1 meetings): Pisa 0W | Draws 1 | AC Milan 0W.
What form are Pisa and AC Milan in?
Pisa (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. AC Milan (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Pisa's attack rating (0.54) and AC Milan's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Milan's attack (1.36x) against Pisa's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 24/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 0-3 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Milan Win
8%
12.80
19%
5.33
73%
1.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
16.7%
Away win
0 – 3
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.48
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.48
2.00
AC Milan xG
12.80
8%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
1.36
73%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
14%
7.38
62%
1.62
Win to Nil
1%
94.52
45%
2.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 16.7 | 16.7 | 11.1 | 5.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs AC Milan?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Pisa and AC Milan expected to score?
The model projects 0.48 expected goals for Pisa and 2.00 for AC Milan, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs AC Milan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Pisa's recent record stands at 23W 19D 19L from 61 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Milan, meanwhile, have gone 32W 17D 12L across 61 games — 1.85 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for AC Milan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AC Milan by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 14W 7D 9L from 30 games — 1.63 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AC Milan's away record stands at 16W 7D 7L across 30 trips, a 1.83 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Pisa are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; AC Milan are on 1.62 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: AC Milan in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Blended
AC Milan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and AC Milan in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 23W 19D 19L in their last 61 games (1.44 PPG), while AC Milan have gone 32W 17D 12L in their last 61 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or AC Milan away?
AC Milan's away record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 1.63 PPG; AC Milan away: 1.83 PPG.
Have Pisa or AC Milan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pisa have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, AC Milan in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Pisa
1
Draws
1
AC Milan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and AC Milan?
From 2 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, AC Milan have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and AC Milan last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Pisa 1-2 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and AC Milan?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Pisa see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pisa 43%, AC Milan 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Pisa) and 60% (AC Milan).
On the defensive side: Pisa keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; AC Milan in 37%; Pisa have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / AC Milan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play AC Milan?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Pisa's recent matches and 60% of AC Milan's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs AC Milan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Pisa's recent games and 60% of AC Milan's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and AC Milan tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, AC Milan in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AC Milan edge out Pisa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Milan beat Pisa 1-2 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 0.48 xG and AC Milan 2.00 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.54 / defence 1.22 against AC Milan attack 1.36 / defence 0.72, drawn from 24/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 8% | Draw 19% | AC Milan 73%, with AC Milan to win its most likely call at 73%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 49%, AC Milan 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
AC Milan's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Milan arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.