Parma 2-2 Torino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Torino at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Parma vs Torino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Parma and Torino meet at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A (matchday 28). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Parma have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Parma's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Torino have posted 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Torino arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 5 Jan 2025, ended Parma 0–0 Torino — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Parma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 47%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Torino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 65 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 65% versus Torino 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 54% | Torino 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.19 xG and Torino 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.920 / defence 1.264 | Torino attack 1.074 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.302 / away 1.205. Parma's defence rating of 1.264 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Torino's projected output up. Data: built from Parma's last 27 games and Torino's last 65.
Result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 28% | Torino 46%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.85 | Draw 3.54 | Torino 2.18. Torino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Torino as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Torino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Parma 70% (last 10 home games) | Torino 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Saturday 8 March 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 26% | Draw 28% | Torino 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 58% (No 42%) | xG Parma 1.19 / Torino 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.920 / def 1.264 | Torino attack 1.074 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.302 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Torino (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.64
Torino xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Parma vs Torino FAQs
What time does Parma vs Torino kick off?
Parma vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What was the final score in Parma vs Torino?
Parma 2 - 2 Torino.
Where is Parma vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Torino part of?
Parma vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 26% chance of winning, Torino a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Torino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Parma and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Parma vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.92x the league average against Torino's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Torino's attack (1.07x) against Parma's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
These ratings are built from Parma's last 27 games and Torino's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Torino Win
26%
3.85
28%
3.54
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Parma xG
Total xG
2.83
1.64
Torino xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
19%
5.13
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
5%
19.76
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Parma vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Parma and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Parma and 1.64 for Torino, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Parma come into this having played 65 games, going 26W 21D 18L for 1.52 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Torino sit at 1.34 PPG from 65 outings (21W 24D 20L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for Parma against 1.34 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Parma's home form reads 15W 10D 8L across their last 33 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Torino have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 33 away games (9W 10D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Parma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Parma are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.03 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: Torino in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Blended
Torino
Blended
Parma (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Parma
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Parma vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Parma and Torino in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 26W 21D 18L in their last 65 games (1.52 PPG), while Torino have gone 21W 24D 20L in their last 65 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Torino away?
Parma's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.67 PPG; Torino away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Parma or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Torino in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 5 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to January 2025 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Torino have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Torino won Torino 4-1 Parma on 13 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Parma have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Parma
2
Draws
2
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Parma vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Torino?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Parma have won 1, Torino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Parma 0-3 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 70%, Torino 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Parma) and 39% (Torino).
On the defensive side: Torino in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Parma vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Parma and Torino matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Parma's games and 48% of Torino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Parma and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Parma's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Parma's recent matches and 61% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Parma and Torino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Ennio Tardini, Regular Season - 28, as Parma and Torino drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Parma 1.19 xG and Torino 1.64 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Parma beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Parma attack 0.92 / defence 1.26 against Torino attack 1.07 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Parma 26% | Draw 28% | Torino 46%, with Torino to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Parma 54%, Torino 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Parma's trading profile (65 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Torino's trading profile (65 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Parma 1.52 PPG, Torino 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Serie A fixtures — matchday 28
All Serie A fixtures →
More Italian football predictions →