Parma vs Sassuolo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Sassuolo travel to Stadio Ennio Tardini to take on Parma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 February 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Parma have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Ennio Tardini — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sassuolo stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Parma 1.10 PPG, Sassuolo 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Parma, 0 for Sassuolo and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Parma in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Sassuolo in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 38% versus Sassuolo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Parma 28% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 1.09 xG and Sassuolo 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.840 / defence 0.984 | Sassuolo attack 0.937 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Parma games / 40 Sassuolo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 37%. Fair-value odds: Parma 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Sassuolo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sassuolo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. This conflicts with form data: Parma 50% | Sassuolo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 34% | Draw 29% | Sassuolo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Parma 1.09 / Sassuolo 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.840 / def 0.984 | Sassuolo attack 0.937 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Sassuolo xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Sassuolo kick off?
Parma vs Sassuolo is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Sassuolo part of?
Parma vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 34% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Parma and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sassuolo?
Record (2 meetings): Parma 1W | Draws 1 | Sassuolo 0W.
What form are Parma and Sassuolo in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Parma's attack rating (0.84) and Sassuolo's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Sassuolo's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.5%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
34%
2.92
29%
3.46
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Parma xG
Total xG
2.22
1.14
Sassuolo xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
11%
9.11
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.8 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Parma and 1.14 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Parma have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 12D 17L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo's form line: 15W 7D 18L from 40 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.12 PPG, Sassuolo on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Parma have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Sassuolo away?
Parma's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.05 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Parma or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Sassuolo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Parma
1
Draws
0
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Sassuolo?
From 2 meetings on record, Parma have won 1, Sassuolo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Parma 1-0 Sassuolo.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Sassuolo?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 45%, Sassuolo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Parma) and 55% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 40% of games; Sassuolo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Parma's recent matches and 60% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Parma's recent games and 55% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.