Parma vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bologna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Parma vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Parma host Bologna at Stadio Ennio Tardini in Serie A, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 8 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma at Stadio Ennio Tardini this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna's away record: 7W 0D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Parma at 1.10 PPG versus Bologna's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Parma, 1 for Bologna and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with Parma winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Parma trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Bologna trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Parma 38% versus Bologna 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Parma 28% | Bologna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Parma 0.94 xG and Bologna 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Parma attack 0.839 / defence 0.984 | Bologna attack 0.938 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Parma games / 40 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Parma 30% | Draw 30% | Bologna 40%. Fair-value odds: Parma 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Parma 50% | Bologna 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Parma vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Ennio Tardini • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Parma 30% | Draw 30% | Bologna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Parma 0.94 / Bologna 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Parma attack 0.839 / def 0.984 | Bologna attack 0.938 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Bologna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Parma xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bologna xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Parma vs Bologna kick off?
Parma vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 8 November 2026 at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
Where is Parma vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
What competition is Parma vs Bologna part of?
Parma vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Parma vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Parma a 30% chance of winning, Bologna a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Parma vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Parma and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Parma vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Parma 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Parma and Bologna in?
Parma (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Parma's attack at 0.84x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Parma's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
30%
3.34
30%
3.34
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Parma xG
Total xG
2.08
1.14
Bologna xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
10%
10.43
16%
6.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Parma vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Parma and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Parma and 1.14 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Parma vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Parma come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 12D 17L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Bologna sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (16W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Parma on 1.12 PPG, Bologna on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Parma's home form reads 5W 6D 9L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Bologna have taken 1.70 points per game from 20 outings (10W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Parma are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.23 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Parma
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Parma and Bologna in coming into this match?
Parma have gone 11W 12D 17L in their last 40 games (1.12 PPG), while Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Parma at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Parma at home: 1.05 PPG; Bologna away: 1.70 PPG.
Have Parma or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Parma have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bologna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Parma and Bologna runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Parma's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Parma
1
Draws
1
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Parma and Bologna?
From 4 meetings on record, Parma have won 2, Bologna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Parma and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Bologna 0-1 Parma.
Who has won more matches between Parma and Bologna?
Parma have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Parma see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Parma 45%, Bologna 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Parma) and 50% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Parma have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Parma home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Parma play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Parma's recent matches and 55% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Parma vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Parma's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Parma and Bologna tend to score early?
Parma have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Bologna in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.