Napoli 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Napoli (52%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Napoli face Udinese.

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Analysis

Udinese make the trip to Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to face Napoli in Serie A (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 9 February 2025 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Napoli (all games): 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

At home, Napoli have gone 8W 0D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Udinese have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Napoli. A 1.30 PPG lead over Udinese (2.50 vs 1.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record in our data favours Napoli, who have won 5 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Udinese — Udinese have 0 wins, with 2 draws.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.6 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2024, ended Napoli 3–1 Udinese — a Napoli win.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Napoli and goals — 5 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.6 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.

Trading & In-Play

Napoli — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Udinese — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 63%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 49% versus Udinese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 52% | Udinese 44%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 63% of cases while Napoli recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.57 xG and Udinese 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.983 / defence 0.727 | Udinese attack 0.870 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.314. Napoli have a tight defence (rating 0.727), which is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from Napoli's last 61 games and Udinese's last 61.

Result probabilities: Napoli 52% | Draw 31% | Udinese 17%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.92 | Draw 3.22 | Udinese 5.88. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Napoli are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.6 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Napoli 30% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 70% (last 10 away games).

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