Napoli 1-0 Sampdoria – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Napoli at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Napoli vs Sampdoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona plays host to Napoli versus Sampdoria in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 9 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Napoli have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.
Sampdoria's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.44 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Napoli, 1.10 for Sampdoria — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Napoli 1W, Sampdoria 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2021, ended 4–0 with Napoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Napoli half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Sampdoria half-time and goal-timing data (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 40% versus Sampdoria 70%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 50% | Sampdoria 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.51 xG and Sampdoria 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 0.991 / defence 0.904 | Sampdoria attack 0.858 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.512. Sampdoria bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Napoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Napoli games / 20 Sampdoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 44% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 29%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Sampdoria 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Napoli at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 30% | Sampdoria 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Sampdoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 44% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Napoli 1.51 / Sampdoria 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 0.991 / def 0.904 | Sampdoria attack 0.858 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.512 • Poisson stance: Napoli (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sampdoria xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Sampdoria kick off?
Napoli vs Sampdoria kicked off at 15:30 on Sunday 9 January 2022 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Sampdoria?
Napoli 1 - 0 Sampdoria.
Where is Napoli vs Sampdoria being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Sampdoria part of?
Napoli vs Sampdoria is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Sampdoria?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 44% chance of winning, Sampdoria a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Sampdoria?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Napoli and Sampdoria will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Sampdoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Sampdoria?
Record (1 meetings): Napoli 1W | Draws 0 | Sampdoria 0W.
What form are Napoli and Sampdoria in?
Napoli (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-D. Sampdoria (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Napoli's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Sampdoria's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Sampdoria's attack (0.86x) against Napoli's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
44%
2.25
26%
3.78
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.68
1.17
Sampdoria xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
6%
15.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.1 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Sampdoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Napoli and Sampdoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Napoli and 1.17 for Sampdoria, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Sampdoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Napoli have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 12W 4D 4L record — L-L-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sampdoria's form line: 5W 5D 10L from 20 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Napoli are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sampdoria.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Napoli have posted 1.78 PPG from 9 outings (5W 1D 3L).
On the road, Sampdoria have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Napoli are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Sampdoria are on 1.40 scored and 1.85 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria in 70%.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Sampdoria
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Sampdoria in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 12W 4D 4L in their last 20 games (2.00 PPG), while Sampdoria have gone 5W 5D 10L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Sampdoria away?
Napoli's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 1.78 PPG; Sampdoria away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Napoli or Sampdoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sampdoria in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 June 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Napoli go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 0-4 on 23 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sampdoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Napoli
0
Draws
0
Sampdoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Sampdoria?
From 4 meetings on record, Napoli have won 4, Sampdoria have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Sampdoria last play each other?
They last met on 4 June 2023, when Napoli 2-0 Sampdoria.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Sampdoria?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 33%, Sampdoria 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Napoli) and 67% (Sampdoria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sampdoria in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Sampdoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Sampdoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Napoli's recent matches and 56% of Sampdoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Sampdoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Napoli's matches and 67% of Sampdoria's.
Do Napoli and Sampdoria tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Sampdoria in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Sampdoria 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Sampdoria 1-0 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.51 xG and Sampdoria 1.17 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sampdoria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 0.99 / defence 0.90 against Sampdoria attack 0.86 / defence 1.31, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 44% | Draw 26% | Sampdoria 29%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 50%, Sampdoria 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Sampdoria's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sampdoria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.