Napoli 2-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Napoli at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Napoli vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Napoli and Juventus meet at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 7 December 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Napoli's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Napoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Napoli's home record at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Napoli are significantly better at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona than their overall form suggests.
Juventus have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. Napoli's 1.90 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Juventus's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Napoli, who have won 5 of the last 8 meetings against Juventus — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with Napoli winning.
The historical record gives Napoli a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Napoli — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Juventus — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Napoli 43% versus Juventus 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Napoli 45% | Juventus 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Napoli 1.45 xG and Juventus 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Napoli attack 1.259 / defence 0.838 | Juventus attack 0.888 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.111. Napoli carry an above-average attack strength of 1.259 — their λ of 1.45 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 51 Napoli games / 51 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Napoli 51% | Draw 29% | Juventus 20%. Fair-value odds: Napoli 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Juventus 5.00. Napoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Napoli as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Napoli if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Napoli 50% | Juventus 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Napoli vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Napoli 51% | Draw 29% | Juventus 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Napoli 1.45 / Juventus 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Napoli attack 1.259 / def 0.838 | Juventus attack 0.888 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.111 • Poisson stance: Napoli (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Napoli xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Juventus xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Napoli vs Juventus kick off?
Napoli vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What was the final score in Napoli vs Juventus?
Napoli 2 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Napoli vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
What competition is Napoli vs Juventus part of?
Napoli vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Napoli vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Napoli a 51% chance of winning, Juventus a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Napoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Napoli vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Napoli and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Napoli vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Juventus?
Record (8 meetings): Napoli 5W | Draws 2 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Napoli and Juventus in?
Napoli (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Juventus (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Napoli's attack rating (1.26) and Juventus's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.45 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.89x) against Napoli's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.3%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Napoli Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.48
20%
4.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Napoli xG
Total xG
2.28
0.83
Juventus xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.91
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
5%
20.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.9 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Napoli vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Napoli and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Napoli and 0.83 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Napoli vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Napoli come into this having played 51 games, going 33W 11D 7L for 2.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Napoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventus sit at 1.82 PPG from 51 outings (24W 21D 6L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.16 PPG for Napoli against 1.82 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Napoli's home form reads 19W 4D 2L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventus have taken 1.52 points per game from 25 outings (9W 11D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Napoli come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Napoli are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.47 scored and 0.92 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games; Juventus in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Napoli
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Napoli and Juventus in coming into this match?
Napoli have gone 33W 11D 7L in their last 51 games (2.16 PPG), while Juventus have gone 24W 21D 6L in their last 51 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Napoli at home or Juventus away?
Napoli's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Napoli at home: 2.44 PPG; Juventus away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Napoli or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Napoli have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Juventus in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Napoli won 5-1 on 13 Jan 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Napoli have gone 5W 0D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Napoli
2
Draws
2
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Napoli and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Napoli have won 6, Juventus have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Napoli and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Juventus 3-0 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Napoli and Juventus?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Napoli 48%, Juventus 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Napoli) and 36% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Napoli keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Napoli home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Napoli play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Napoli's recent matches and 56% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Napoli vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Napoli's recent games and 36% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Napoli and Juventus tend to score early?
Napoli have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Juventus in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Juventus 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Juventus 2-1 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Napoli 1.45 xG and Juventus 0.83 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Napoli attack 1.26 / defence 0.84 against Juventus attack 0.89 / defence 0.93, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Napoli 51% | Draw 29% | Juventus 20%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Napoli 45%, Juventus 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Napoli's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Napoli 2.16 PPG, Juventus 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Napoli win broke the near-deadlock. Juventus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.